Is BP's earnings trend improving after Q4?

**BP's earnings trend is not currently forming an improving pattern after Q4.** In fact, several indicators suggest a continued challenging outlook for the company's finances.

1. **Recent Earnings Performance**: BP's latest reported net income for Q4 2024 was $370 million. This is a significant decrease from the previous quarter's net income of $3 billion. Such a substantial drop indicates a deteriorating earnings trend.

2. **Refining Margins and Energy Prices**: The company's underlying replacement cost profit for Q4 2024 was $1.2 billion, which is still considerably lower than the $3 billion reported in the same quarter of the previous year. This decline is attributed to weaker refining margins and lower energy prices, which have been persistent challenges for BP.
3. **Strategic Responses**: BP has announced a strategic reset amid the earnings slump, pledging a "new direction". While this may signal an intention to improve, the effectiveness of such a reset in the short term is uncertain. Moreover, the company has faced pressure from activist investors to shake up its management, which could lead to further uncertainty during this transitional period.
4. **Production Trends**: BP's total production for Q4 2024 was 899 MBoe/d, down from 956 MBoe/d in the same quarter of the previous year. This decline in production, coupled with lower energy prices, contributes to the company's financial challenges.
5. **Market Expectations**: Analysts had projected a higher net income of $3,895 million for Q4 2024, which BP missed significantly. This missed expectation could further dampen investor confidence and market perception of the company's future earnings potential.

In summary, while BP's decision to fundamentally reset its strategy may offer hope for long-term improvement, the immediate earnings trend does not appear to be heading towards an improvement based on the current available data. The company's financial performance is likely to remain under pressure until the strategic changes take effect, which could be a lengthy process.