Is BKNG's Q1 2025 forecast too conservative?

**Booking Holdings' (BKNG) Q1 2025 forecast appears to be cautiously optimistic rather than conservative.** Here's why:

1. **Earnings Per Share (EPS) Projection**: The forecasted EPS for Q1 2025 is $17.50. This represents a 14.17% decrease from the corresponding quarter of the previous year. While a decline in EPS might initially suggest a conservative outlook, the fact that the company is still projecting a positive figure, especially considering the broader market challenges, indicates a level of confidence in its operational performance.

2. **Revenue Projection**: The estimated revenue for Q1 2025 is $4.59 billion. This represents a 4% increase from the same quarter of the previous year. Revenue growth, even at a modest rate, suggests that Booking Holdings is anticipating continued business activity, which is a more optimistic view than mere maintenance of existing levels.
3. **Market Performance and Analyst Sentiment**: Despite short-term fluctuations and a notable loss of -12.3% over the past month compared to the S&P 500's -7.4%, the stock has shown resilience and has outperformed the Retail-Wholesale sector. Analysts' adjustments to estimates, which have shown a positive trend, indicate a favorable outlook.
4. **Full-Year Forecast**: The full-year Zacks Consensus Estimates project earnings of $210.08 per share and revenue of $25.22 billion, suggesting year-over-year changes of +12.28% and +6.25%, respectively. These figures reflect a bullish view of Booking Holdings' potential for growth, which is at odds with a conservative stance.

In conclusion, while the Q1 2025 forecast shows a decline in EPS, the overall context of revenue growth, market performance, analyst sentiment, and full-year projections points to a cautiously optimistic outlook rather than conservatism.