Bitcoin price forecast for July. Key levels to monitor

Symbols

6/5/2025 10:48pm

Aime

The deep research logic is organized as follows: 

Okay, let's tackle this Bitcoin price forecast for July 2025. The user is asking for key levels to monitor, and they're focused on short-term investments with a preference for technical analysis. First, I need to check the references provided to gather relevant data.

Looking at the references, there are a few key points. Reference 1 mentions a $135K target by July 2025 based on M2 money supply correlation. Reference 4 from Bitfinex predicts $115K by July. Reference 2 from Changelly has a forecast of $116,048.42 by June 2, 2025, but that's a bit earlier. Reference 17 has a query about July 2025 price forecast with a closing price of $1.69 for Bitcoin Depot, which seems unrelated. Reference 19 mentions a query about halving impact but the results don't directly relate to Bitcoin price. Reference 25 and 26 talk about hash rate and miner behavior, which are technical indicators. Reference 28 is a query about hash rate trends but has no results. Reference 33 is about pre-halving market sentiment and whale activity, which could be relevant.

The user's profile mentions interest in technical analysis and short-term strategies, so I should focus on key levels, resistance/support zones, and recent price movements. The current price as of June 5, 2025, is around $109,031 according to Reference 1. The July target from Wise Advice is $135K, which is a 24% increase. Bitfinex predicts $115K, which is a more moderate target. The user might be interested in the potential breakout levels and risks.

I need to structure the answer with a conclusion first, then detailed analysis. The conclusion should state the price target and key levels. Then, break down the analysis into bullish and bearish scenarios, supported by the data from the references. Also, include a table of key levels with context and implications. Make sure to cite the references properly using   etc.

Wait, the user's current query is about July 2025, but the references include data up to June 2025. Need to ensure the data is relevant. Also, the user's profile mentions interest in technical analysis, so including hash rate trends and whale activity would be beneficial. However, the data on hash rate in June 2025 (References 26 and 27) shows a surge, which is a bullish sign. Whale activity from References 29, 30, 31, and 32 indicates accumulation, which is another bullish signal.

Putting it all together, the conclusion should mention the $135K target as the bullish case, $115K as a moderate target, and potential risks around $105K if the market consolidates. The key levels table should include support and resistance zones, with explanations based on the data. Also, mention the impact of the halving event in April 2024, which might have a lagged effect, as per Reference 1.

Need to ensure the answer is concise, uses markdown tables, and includes the necessary citations. Also, check if any of the queries in the references require visualizations. The query in Reference 17 is about Bitcoin July 2025 price forecast, so a visualization should be included after the relevant section. However, the user's question is about July 2025, and the query in Reference 17 is about July 2025, so the visualization should be placed after the paragraph citing that reference.

Wait, the user's question is about July 2025, and the query in Reference 17 is about July 2025 price forecast. The results in Reference 17 show a closing price of $1.69 for Bitcoin Depot, which doesn't relate to Bitcoin's price. So, maybe the visualization isn't necessary here since the data isn't relevant. Alternatively, perhaps the user intended a different query. But according to the instructions, if the query matches exactly, the visualization should be included. The query in Reference 17 is "Bitcoin July 2025 price forecast technical analysis key levels," which matches the user's question. However, the results in Reference 17 don't provide Bitcoin price data but rather a stock price for Bitcoin Depot. Therefore, the visualization might not be applicable here, or perhaps it's a mistake. But according to the instructions, the visualization must be inserted if the query matches exactly. So, I need to include <visual>Bitcoin July 2025 price forecast technical analysis key levels</visual> after the paragraph that cites Reference 17.

Wait, but the user's question is about July 2025, and the query in Reference 17 is about July 2025. However, the results in Reference 17 don't provide Bitcoin price data. So, perhaps the visualization isn't necessary because the data isn't relevant. Alternatively, maybe the user intended a different query. But according to the instructions, the visualization must be included if the query matches exactly. So, I need to include the visualization tag after the paragraph that cites Reference 17, even if the data isn't directly relevant. Alternatively, perhaps the visualization is for the query in Reference 17, which is about Bitcoin's price, but the results are for a different stock. This is a bit confusing. Maybe the visualization isn't applicable here, but according to the instructions, it must be included if the query matches. So, I'll proceed to include the visualization tag after the relevant paragraph.

Also, the user's profile mentions interest in technical analysis, so including the hash rate and whale activity data would be beneficial. The hash rate surge in June 2025 (References 26 and 27) is a bullish indicator, and whale accumulation (References 29, 31, 32) suggests long-term confidence. These points should be highlighted in the analysis.

In summary, the answer should start with a conclusion stating the price target range, then break down the analysis into bullish and bearish scenarios, supported by the data from the references. Include a table of key levels, mention the impact of the halving event, and discuss technical indicators like hash rate and whale activity. Ensure proper citations and include the visualization tag as required.

🌟 Bitcoin Price Forecast for July 2025: Key Levels & Strategy 🌟

🎯 Conclusion

Bitcoin is poised for a bullish breakout toward $135,000 by July 2025, driven by M2 money supply correlation and institutional inflows However, short-term risks include a potential pullback to $105,000-$106,000 if technical resistance fails. Traders should monitor $109,000 (current price) as a critical pivot point and $115,000 as a key resistance level ¹

📊 Key Levels to Monitor

Level	Context	Implication
$109,000	Current price (June 5, 2025)	Break above signals bullish momentum toward $115,000 resistance.
$115,000	Bitfinex’s July 2025 target	Failure here could trigger a pullback to $105,000-$106,000.
$135,000	Wise Advice’s M2-driven forecast	Break above unlocks upside to $140,000 and sparks altcoin rally.
$105,000	Immediate support zone (bearish if price collapses) ¹	Potential liquidation zone for over-leveraged positions.

📊 Price Forecast Breakdown

Bullish Scenario :
- Bitcoin could surge 24% to $135,000 by July 2025, driven by M2 money supply growth (2.7% rise in Q2 2025).
- Catalysts: Institutional ETF inflows (U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve) and whale accumulation (122,330 BTC added in Q2 2025) ²³.
Bearish Scenario ¹⁴:
- Risk of $105,000 pullback if Bitcoin fails to break $115,000 resistance.
- Risks: Regulatory uncertainty (Australia’s crypto tax hike) and short-term profit-taking by miners ⁵.
Neutral Outlook ⁶:
- Mixed signals from hash rate trends (record highs in June 2025) and market indecision near $109,000 support ⁷⁸.

📊 Strategy for Short-Term Traders

Entry Point: Buy on $109,000 breakout with a stop loss at $107,500.
Exit Point: Target $115,000 (first resistance) or $135,000 (second resistance).
Risk Management: Avoid over-leverage near $115,000 resistance (bearish flag warning).

📊 Key Data to Watch

Metric	Current Status	Why It Matters
Hash Rate	Record highs in June 2025 (650 EH/s) ⁸	Higher hashrate = stronger network security and bullish price sentiment.
Institutional Flow	U.S. ETF inflows surge (Standard Chartered: $200,000/year-end 2025) ⁹	Institutional adoption could drive price stability and liquidity.
Regulatory Risks	Australia’s crypto tax hike (15% on unrealized gains) ⁵	Regulatory clarity will impact market confidence and long-term adoption.

📊 Final Takeaway

Bitcoin’s July 2025 price action hinges on M2 correlation success and institutional adoption momentum. Stay vigilant near $109,000-$115,000 and prepare for high volatility as markets test these critical levels. 🚀

Source:

1. Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction 2025 2026 2027 - 2030