Based on today's market conditions, what is your recommended action for KOS?

**Action Recommendation (short-term): HOLD and wait for either
a) a decisive breakout above US$2.00–2.10 or
b) a pull-back toward the US$1.55–1.65 demand zone before adding new money.**

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### 1. What the tape is telling us

| Metric (5 Jun 2025 close) | Current | Signal |
|---------------------------|---------|--------|
| Last price | **US$1.81** | -0.55 % on the day; still stuck in a 3-month base |
| 50-day SMA | 2.26 | Price < 50-dma → primary trend remains down |
| 200-day SMA | 4.18 | Long-term bear market intact |
| RSI-14 | 63.7 | Momentum improving but not yet overbought |
| MACD line | +0.04 | Fresh bullish crossover, still shallow |
| 52-wk range | 1.39 – 5.97 | Room for upside, but also shows how far sentiment has fallen |
| Volume (5 Jun) | 13.9 m sh. | ~1.2× 20-day average – buyers are showing up |

Interpretation: The stock is trying to turn the corner (positive MACD, rising RSI), yet it remains below all meaningful moving-average resistance. Until KOS can reclaim the 50-day trend line near US$2.26, rallies are best viewed as **counter-trend bounces**.

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### 2. Catalysts & fundamentals

1. Ghana just **extended the Jubilee and TEN licences to 2040**, unlocking up to US$2 bn of new investment and an estimated 20 new wells – clearly bullish for Kosmos’ long-life asset base .
2. Q1-25 results disappointed (adj. EPS –$0.22 vs –$0.08 expected) as lower realised crude prices and higher costs weighed on cash flow .
3. Net debt/EBITDAX ended Q1 at ~2.9×, leaving limited balance-sheet flexibility if oil softens further.

Bottom line: The licence extension is a **strategic win**, but it will not boost free cash flow until 2026+. Near-term earnings remain heavily leveraged to Brent > US$80/bbl.

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### 3. Tactical map

| Price level | Role & Strategy |
|-------------|-----------------|
| US$2.00-2.10 | Top of recent range. **Need a close above on >15 m sh. volume** to validate bullish reversal; would target the 50-dma next. |
| US$1.55-1.65 | High-volume node & gap support. Good risk/reward for fresh longs with a stop just under US$1.50. |
| < US$1.39 | Break of 52-wk low → abandon the trade; downside opens toward US$1.00 psychological support. |

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### 4. Portfolio takeaway

• **Already long:** Keep positions but trail a stop below US$1.50. Consider trimming 25-30 % into any breakout failure at US$2.00.
• **Looking to enter:** Patience. Either buy the confirmed breakout (> US$2.10) or leg in on weakness around US$1.60 with tight risk control.
• **Risk profile:** High beta, single-asset E&P; position size accordingly.

> Oil juniors can move 10 % in a single session—protect capital first, chase upside second.

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*This analysis is educational and does not constitute individualized investment advice.*