How did AXSM's Q4 earnings surprise impact investor confidence?

**Axsome Therapeutics' (AXSM) Q4 earnings surprise had a mixed impact on investor confidence**, as evidenced by the following:

1. **Earnings Surprise**: Axsome Therapeutics reported a quarterly loss of $0.96 per share, which was a surprise given the consensus estimate was a loss of $1.00 per share. This represented an earnings surprise of 4%, indicating the company's performance exceeded expectations.

2. **Investor Reaction**:
- **Initial D dip**: Following the earnings release, Axsome Therapeutics' shares experienced a decline of over 2%, marking one of the worst sessions in nearly two weeks. This immediate reaction suggests some investor disappointment or concern regarding the earnings miss.
- **Long-term optimism**: Despite the short-term dip, retail traders on Stocktwits remained bullish, with message volume increasing. This indicates that many investors were optimistic about Axsome's long-term growth prospects, possibly due to factors such as strong commercial growth, a rapidly advancing pipeline, and the recent U.S. approval of Symbravo for migraine treatment.
- **Analyst Ratings**: Analysts at Zacks Research raised their Q1 2025 EPS estimates for Axsome Therapeutics, reflecting a more optimistic outlook. This adjustment suggests that the earnings surprise may not have been a significant factor in altering long-term growth expectations.
3. **Stock Performance Context**:
- **Overall Upward Trend**: Axsome Therapeutics' shares had added about 55% since the beginning of the year versus the S&P 500's gain of 4%. This broader context suggests that while Q4 earnings may have caused some short-term volatility, the company's strong performance and growth prospects continued to support investor confidence in the stock.
- **Positive Market Sentiment**: The company's stock remained at $121.91, with no significant changes noted. This stability, along with positive analyst ratings and price target adjustments, indicates that the market sentiment remained largely positive.

In conclusion, while Axsome Therapeutics' Q4 earnings surprise may have caused some short-term fluctuations in investor confidence, the overall positive market sentiment and long-term growth prospects likely maintained investor confidence in the stock.