Is AXP's Q3 2024 earnings trend a concern for investors?

American Express' (AXP) Q3 2024 earnings trend does not appear to be a significant concern for investors, based on the following points:

1. Strong Actual Performance: AXP's Q3 2024 diluted EPS was $3.49, which exceeded analysts' consensus estimates of $3.26 by $0.23. This indicates a robust profitability period for the company.
2. Revenue Alignment: Although total revenue was $16.33 billion, slightly below the consensus estimate of $16.60 billion, this discrepancy is unlikely to raise concerns given the overall economic climate and the complexity of forecasting revenue in the payment services sector.
3. Analyst Adjustments: Seaport Res Ptn analyst W. Ryan recently reduced his Q3 2024 earnings estimate to $3.25 per share, down from $3.28. However, this adjustment does not necessarily reflect a trend of declining earnings but rather a fine-tuning of expectations. The consensus estimate for the full year remains strong at $13.17 per share.
4. Future Outlook: Despite the potential for softness in second-half revenue, analysts like Ryan M. Nash from Goldman Sachs remain optimistic about American Express' long-term prospects. He expects card fees to re-accelerate and small businesses to show improvement, which should offset slowing Net Interest Income growth.
5. Dividend Increase: AXP has recently increased its dividend, reflecting confidence in its financial stability and commitment to returning value to shareholders.

In conclusion, while minor deviations from estimates occur, the overall performance and future projections of American Express suggest that Q3 2024 earnings trends are not a major concern for investors. The company's strong financial metrics, positive analyst sentiment, and dividend increase demonstrate its resilience and growth potential.