Is AVA's Q2 forecast too conservative?

**Avista's Q2 forecast does not appear to be overly conservative**, based on the available information. Here's an analysis to support this conclusion:

1. **Power Outage Impact**: The planned power outage scheduled for April 4 affects approximately 743 Avista customers in Genessee and the surrounding area. While this disruption might cause inconvenience for these customers, it is a routine maintenance and upgrade activity aimed at enhancing the safety and reliability of the system. The one-hour duration is relatively short, and such outages are typically factored into utility operations to ensure overall system stability.
2. **Strategic Planning**: Avista's submission of its 2025 natural gas integrated resource plan to state regulators in Washington, Idaho, and Oregon indicates a forward-looking approach to its operations. This planning process suggests a measured and strategic approach to resource allocation and investment, which is consistent with a more conservative but well-considered outlook.
3. **Industry Trends**: The utilities sector, including Avista, has been working to improve customer satisfaction and ease of business. Avista's efforts to streamline programs and make them more user-friendly, as evidenced by the improvements in the Customer Effort Score, suggest a proactive approach to addressing customer concerns. This focus on customer experience implies a nuanced understanding of customer needs, which is more consistent with a balanced and conservative strategy.
4. **Financial Performance**: Without specific Q2 forecast data, it is challenging to assess the exact nature of Avista's conservatism regarding financial projections. However, the company's broader strategic initiatives and customer-focused improvements indicate a more holistic approach to operations that may naturally lead to conservative financial planning.

In conclusion, while specific Q2 forecast data is lacking, the available information about Avista's operational strategies, customer-focused initiatives, and regulatory planning submissions suggest that the company's approach is not overly conservative. Instead, it appears to be a measured and forward-thinking strategy that balances operational efficiency with customer satisfaction and regulatory compliance.