Can AVA sustain its Q4 growth into next year?

**Avista's Q4 growth momentum may not fully translate into sustained growth for 2025**, considering the following factors:

1. **Earnings Decline and Revenue Growth Slowdown**: Avista's net income decreased by 20% year-over-year in Q4 2024, with a net income of $67.16 million. Additionally, the total revenue growth rate was only 2.89% in Q4 2024, with revenue reaching $532.77 million. These figures suggest that while Avista has shown some growth, the momentum is slowing down.

|code|Ticker|Name|Date|Net Income YoY|Total Revenue YoY|market_code|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|AVA|AVA.N|Avista|2024 Q1|30.358282432309235|28.397850119355876|169|
|AVA|AVA.N|Avista|2024 Q2|30.736673530084644|5.825965883817581|169|
|AVA|AVA.N|Avista|2024 Q3|25.625169883120414|3.7183965271082595|169|
|AVA|AVA.N|Avista|2024 Q4|-20.004764457149662|2.8898854010961634|169|

2. **Analyst Expectations and Price Target**: The average analyst price target for Avista is $39, with a consensus rating of "Neutral" as of January 22, 2025. This suggests that analysts do not expect a strong rebound in Avista's stock price in the near term, which could impact investor confidence in the company's growth prospects.

3. **Regulatory and Operational Challenges**: Avista's 2025 Natural Gas Integrated Resource Plan filing indicates potential regulatory hurdles and public opposition that could affect the plan's implementation. Additionally, the company's business risk profile is significant due to its heavy concentration in Washington and Idaho, which could lead to operational risks and challenges.
4. **Dividend Growth and Financial Stability**: Avista has a history of dividend growth, which is positive for income-focused investors. However, the company's financial metrics, such as the FFO-to-debt ratio, have shown improvement, but it remains below 16%, which could be a concern for investors looking for stable financials.
5. **Market Conditions and Competition**: The broader market conditions and competition in the utility sector could impact Avista's ability to sustain growth. The company will need to navigate these factors effectively to ensure continued growth into 2025.

In conclusion, while Avista has shown some positive signs of growth and stability, the company's Q4 growth may not fully translate into sustained growth for 2025 due to the factors mentioned above. Investors should monitor the company's performance closely, especially in light of regulatory developments and market conditions.