AUD/NZD Analysis:
- Technical Indicators: The AUD/NZD pair is currently trading near the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.0940, which has been a point of resistance for the past five months. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching 70, indicating potential overbought conditions and suggesting a possible correction.
- Recent Trends: The pair has experienced a sideways grind between familiar peaks and lows, with a recent rally on strong Australia-New Zealand data and a hawkish stance from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ).
- Market Sentiment: The sentiment is currently bullish, as evidenced by the forecasted increase in the AUD/NZD exchange rate for the next 24 hours and the next week. Additionally, the AUD/NZD pair has cleared key upside hurdles and is aiming for the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
- Interest Rates: The 3-month interest rate for Australia (AUDC) is not available, and there is no recent data on interest rates in New Zealand (NZD). However, the RBNZ has recently announced a rate cut, which has weighed on the NZD.
Prediction for the Next 2 Hours:
- Short-Term Forecast: The AUD/NZD exchange rate is predicted to rise to $1.105725 in the next 24 hours, representing a 0.14% increase. This suggests that the pair may continue its upward trend in the short term.
- Support and Resistance Levels: The immediate support level is at 1.0870, and the immediate resistance level is at 1.0930. The pair is likely to bounce from the 200-hour SMA near 1.0750 and has an immediate topside technical ceiling at 1.0830.
- Recent Events: The dramatic turnaround from a one-week trough and the announcement of a 50-bp rate cut by the RBNZ have significantly impacted the pair, boosting it to its highest point since August 16. This event could continue to influence the pair's movement in the next 2 hours.
- Market Speculation: The market is speculating about a possible rate hike in November, which could further boost the AUD/NZD if it materializes. However, the recent disappointment over China's stimulus update may cap further gains.
In conclusion, the AUD/NZD pair is likely to continue its bullish trend in the short term, with potential for further gains towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1100. However, caution is advised due to potential overbought conditions and the possibility of a correction. The recent rate cut by the RBNZ and the market speculation about a rate hike could also influence the pair's movement.
Given the bullish sentiment and the recent positive events, I would lean towards a BUY recommendation for the next 2 hours. However, traders should also consider setting stop-loss orders to protect against potential corrections.