The AUD/CAD pair is expected to experience a slight decline over the next three hours. Here's a detailed analysis to support this prediction:
- Short-Term Forecast: The AUD to CAD exchange rate is forecasted to decrease by -0.28% in the next 24 hours, dropping from the current rate of $0.917179 to $0.9145681. This suggests a bearish trend in the immediate future.
- Technical Indicators: The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is neutral, indicating a lack of strong momentum in either direction2. However, the overall trend is strong buy, which could influence the market dynamics2.
- Support and Resistance Levels: The price action indicates that buyers defended the support level at 0.9200, suggesting a level of consolidation before a potential breakout3. The daily high for the next three hours is forecasted at $0.940349, which could act as a resistance level1.
- Market Sentiment: The sentiment in the AUD/CAD market is estimated to be bullish, which could limit the extent of any decline1. However, the recent shift in positioning with the AUD becoming the largest long position in G10 FX and CAD remaining the largest short position4 suggests that investors may start to rebalance their positions, potentially leading to a sell-off in AUD.
- Recent Performance: The AUDCAD showed a 0.05% rise over the past week and a 2.45% rise over the month, indicating a general upward trend3. However, the recent forecasts suggest a short-term reversal.
- Influence of External Factors: The CAD's fortunes are closely tied to the U.S. due to its largest trading partner relationship3. Any developments in the U.S. market could indirectly affect the CAD and, consequently, the AUD/CAD rate.
In conclusion, while the bullish sentiment and recent upward trend may provide some resistance to a decline, the short-term forecasts and technical indicators suggest that the AUD/CAD pair is more likely to experience a slight downturn over the next three hours. Investors should monitor the pair for potential trading opportunities and consider the broader market context when making investment decisions.