AUD/CAD give me forecast and analysis for the next 6 hours

The AUD/CAD currency pair is currently undergoing a period of volatility, influenced by a combination of factors including oil prices, interest rates, and geopolitical dynamics. Here's a detailed analysis and forecast for the next six hours:

1. Recent Trends and Influencing Factors:
   • Oil Prices: The Canadian Dollar (CAD) has gained strength due to rising crude oil prices, which have bolstered the loonie's value amid global currency dynamics. This bullish trend in oil is expected to continue, supporting the CAD against the Australian Dollar (AUD).
   • Interest Rates and Economic Indicators: The Federal Reserve's policy meeting and its implications for the USD/CAD are pivotal. The Canadian economic indicators show a mixed picture, with the automotive sector being a bright spot, while the US retail sales data suggest a path to maintaining higher interest rates to curb inflation.
   • Market Sentiment and Positioning: The AUD has become the largest long position in G10 FX, indicating strong buying interest, primarily from corporates and real money investors. Conversely, the CAD remains the largest short position, attributed to flows from Crédit Agricole CIB.
2. Technical Analysis:
   • Chart Patterns: The USD/CAD pair is testing the 21-day EMA at 1.3534 and the upper boundary of an ascending channel at 1.3570. A breach above these levels could reinforce the bullish bias, potentially leading to a test of 1.3590 and the psychological level of 1.3600. Conversely, a break below the lower boundary of the ascending channel at 1.3490 could signal a bearish bias.
   • Falling Wedge Pattern: The falling wedge pattern suggests a bullish reversal signal. A break below the psychological 1.3500 level could lead to a test of the lower boundary at 1.3470, with a further decline potentially pushing the pair to the six-month low of 1.3441.
3. Short-Term Forecast:
   • Bullish Potential: The 14-day RSI remains below 50, indicating an oversold condition for the USD/CAD pair, suggesting potential for an upward correction in the near future.
   • Bearish Threats: However, the bearish trend is still in effect, and a breach below the 1.3490 level could strengthen this bias.
4. Analysis in the Next Six Hours:
   • Immediate Focus: The immediate focus for the next six hours will be on the 21-day EMA and the ascending channel boundaries. Holding above these levels could indicate continued bullish momentum.
   • Traders should monitor the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting outcomes and any updates on oil prices for further insights into the currency pair's movement.

In conclusion, while there is a potential for a bullish reversal due to technical indicators and oil price support, the ongoing bearish trend and the proximity to key resistance levels suggest that the AUD/CAD pair may face challenges in maintaining a sustained upward movement in the immediate future. Traders should exercise caution and consider these factors when positioning their trades.