How will ATSG's EPS likely change next year?

**Air Transport Services Group (ATSG) is likely to experience a positive change in EPS next year.** Here's a detailed analysis to support this conclusion:

1. **Current Financial Performance**: ATSG's recent financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ending December 31, 2024, demonstrate strong cash flow and operational performance. The company reported revenues of $517 million for the fourth quarter, consistent with the same period in 2023, and achieved a GAAP Earnings per Share (EPS) from continuing operations of $0.21, a significant improvement from a loss per share of ($0.24) in the prior year.
2. **Analyst Expectations**: Analysts expect ATSG to post earnings of $0.19 per share for the upcoming quarter, which is a positive indication of potential growth. This expectation is based on the company's historical performance and current market conditions.

3. **Recent Trends and Adjustments**: Zacks Research has issued earnings per share estimates for ATSG, and while there have been some adjustments to these estimates, the overall trend suggests improving earnings outlooks. For instance, Zacks Research boosted its Q4 2024 earnings estimates for ATSG in a research note issued on August 29, 2024. This adjustment reflects a more optimistic view of ATSG's future earnings potential.
4. **Sector Performance and Comparison**: Within the Transportation sector, ATSG has outperformed its peers so far this year, with a year-to-date performance that includes gains and a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy). This sector performance provides a positive context for ATSG's future earnings potential.
5. **Strategic Developments**: ATSG's strategic initiatives, such as the pending acquisition by Stonepeak, are expected to enhance the company's financial position and create new opportunities for growth. These developments are likely to have a positive impact on ATSG's EPS in the coming year.
6. **Historical Performance and Industry Position**: ATSG has a history of delivering earnings that beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with a recent quarter seeing an EPS of $0.40, which surpassed the estimate by 14.29%. This track record suggests that ATSG's EPS is likely to continue to exceed expectations in the future.

In conclusion, considering ATSG's current financial performance, analyst expectations, recent trends, sector performance, strategic developments, and historical performance, it is reasonable to anticipate that ATSG's EPS will likely change positively next year.