How did ARI's Q4 2023 earnings surprise impact short-term trading?

ARI's Q4 2023 earnings beat expectations had a generally positive impact on short-term trading, though the effects varied by time frame:

1. **3-Day Win Rate and Returns**: After the earnings release, the 3-day win rate was 53.33%, indicating that approximately half of the time, the stock price increased within 3 days. The average 3-day return was -0.24%, suggesting that while there was some volatility, the overall short-term performance was slightly negative.

2. **10-Day Win Rate and Returns**: The 10-day win rate was higher at 66.67%, with an average 10-day return of 4.08%. This indicates that the stock price tended to perform better in the medium term, with a higher probability of increasing within 10 days after the earnings release.
3. **30-Day Win Rate and Returns**: The 30-day win rate was 53.33%, with an average 30-day return of 7.01%. This suggests that while there was some volatility in the short term, the stock price generally trended upwards in the month following the earnings release, with a maximum return of 9.29% recorded on day 75 after the earnings release.

In conclusion, ARI's Q4 2023 earnings beat expectations had a mixed impact on short-term trading, with a higher probability of positive returns in the medium term (10-30 days) compared to the immediate short term (3 days). The slight negative performance in the initial 3 days may reflect market adjustments or reactions before the positive momentum picked up.