Apple plans major iPhone redesigns, foldable and curved screens upcoming, how will this affect Apple's stock long-term?

The deep research logic is organized as follows: 

Okay, let's tackle this question about Apple's upcoming iPhone redesigns and their impact on the stock. The user is an active tech investor, so they're looking for detailed, data-backed insights. First, I need to go through the provided references and background to gather all relevant information.

Starting with the references, there are several articles about Apple's three-year redesign plan. The key points are the introduction of the iPhone Air in 2025, a foldable iPhone in 2026, and a curved glass iPhone 20 in 2027. These are significant because Apple hasn't had major design changes since the iPhone X in 2017. The user is interested in the long-term stock implications, so I need to connect these product launches to financial metrics.

Looking at the historical data, the query about Apple's stock performance around the iPhone X and iPhone 12 launches (References 17) shows mixed results. The stock had a 2.86% increase on June 19, 2017, but a 0.45% drop on June 23, 2017. For the iPhone 12 in 2020, the stock went up 2.28% on January 2, 2020, but then dropped 0.97% the next day. This suggests that while the launches can boost the stock initially, there might be a "sell the news" effect as mentioned in some articles (References 4, 41, 49). However, the long-term impact needs to be considered beyond these short-term fluctuations.

The user's profile mentions a focus on short-term investments, but the question is about long-term effects. So, I should balance both perspectives. The redesigns could drive innovation and differentiate Apple from competitors like Samsung, which has been leading in foldable phones (References 19, 28, 30). However, the foldable market is still niche, with only 1% adoption globally (Reference 29), but expected growth to 74 billion by 2030 (Reference 30). Apple entering this space could capture a premium segment, which might justify a higher stock price if successful.

R&D investment is another factor. The query on R&D trends (Reference 25) shows a 10.74% YoY growth in Q3 2025, which is positive. This indicates Apple is serious about developing these technologies. However, supply chain risks for curved glass (Reference 38) and manufacturing challenges (Reference 12, 13) could pose issues. If Apple faces delays or cost overruns, it might affect profitability and stock performance.

Competitor responses (Reference 45) show a -9.41% change in Apple's stock, but that's a broad market reaction. The user might be interested in how competitors like Samsung are reacting to Apple's moves. If Apple successfully enters the foldable market, it could pressure Samsung and others, potentially shifting market shares.

Legal issues (References 8, 23, 34, 36) with Elon Musk's lawsuit over AI integration could impact Apple's ecosystem. If Apple is forced to change its App Store policies, it might affect partnerships with AI companies, which could influence the success of the new iPhones' AI features. However, this is more of a short-term risk unless it leads to significant changes in Apple's strategy.

Analyst forecasts (References 18, 19) suggest cautious optimism. TD Cowen expects Apple to have until 2026 to deliver on AI, which aligns with the foldable launch. JPMorgan estimates 10-15 million foldable units in 2027, ramping up to 45 million by 2029. If these projections hold, it could drive significant revenue growth, positively impacting the stock.

Institutional sentiment (Reference 43) shows a 0.01% change in floating shares, indicating minimal institutional movement around the redesign announcements. This might suggest that institutions are waiting for more clarity before making significant moves, which could mean the stock is undervalued or overvalued depending on the outcome.

Putting it all together, the long-term impact hinges on execution. If Apple successfully launches these products, especially the foldable and curved models, it could reignite growth and innovation, leading to stock appreciation. However, risks like supply chain issues, competition, and regulatory challenges could temper the upside. The user should consider these factors alongside the potential for market leadership in premium hardware.

### 🌟 **Conclusion**
Apple’s ambitious three-year iPhone redesign roadmap—featuring a slimmer iPhone Air (2025), foldable iPhone (2026), and curved-glass iPhone 20 (2027)—poses a **double-edged sword** for its stock. While the innovations could reignite growth and differentiate Apple from competitors, execution risks, market saturation, and regulatory challenges could temper the upside. Long-term success hinges on **timely delivery, consumer adoption, and ecosystem integration**.

---

### 📊 **Analysis**

#### 1. **Product Cycle Catalysts**
| **Year** | **Product** | **Key Features** | **Market Impact** |
|----------|---------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| 2025 | iPhone Air | Thinner design, 6.3-inch display, Wi-Fi 7, A19 chip | Targets mid-range market, **price hike** ($100 premium vs. iPhone 16 Plus) |
| 2026 | Foldable iPhone (V68) | Book-style hinge, in-cell touch, C2 modem, Liquid Glass | **Niche market** (1% global adoption in 2023) , **$65B revenue potential** |
| 2027 | iPhone