Apple plans major iPhone redesigns, foldable and curved screens upcoming, how will this affect Apple's stock long-term?

The deep research logic is organized as follows: 

Okay, let's tackle this question about Apple's upcoming iPhone redesigns and their impact on the stock. The user is asking for a long-term analysis, so I need to look at the strategic moves Apple is making and how they might affect the company's financials and market position.

First, I'll check the references provided. There are several articles about Apple planning a three-year redesign starting with the iPhone Air in 2025, a foldable iPhone in 2026, and a curved glass model in 2027. These are all part of Apple's strategy to revitalize the iPhone lineup, which has seen stagnant sales recently. The foldable iPhone is a big deal because Samsung has been leading in that space, and Apple entering could shake things up.

I also need to consider the financial implications. The foldable iPhone is projected to generate significant revenue, up to $65 billion by 2029, according to JPMorgan. That's a huge number and could boost Apple's stock if they capture a large market share. However, there are risks like supply chain issues and competition from Samsung and other Chinese manufacturers. The curved glass design for the 20th anniversary iPhone might also attract premium buyers, but it's a niche market.

Looking at the stock performance, the latest data shows a 0.38% increase on 2025-08-25. Analysts like BofA have a Buy rating with a $250 target, which is higher than the current price. Institutional investors have a 64.64% position ratio, indicating confidence. However, there's a risk of a "sell the news" reaction after the iPhone 17 launch, as mentioned by BofA's Wamsi Mohan. This could cause short-term volatility but might not affect the long-term trend.

Another point is Apple's R&D investment. They spent $8.87 billion in Q3 2025 on R&D, which is crucial for developing these new technologies. Their focus on AI integration, like with Google's Gemini, might also play a role in enhancing the iPhone's appeal. However, legal issues like the xAI lawsuit could introduce regulatory risks, though that's more of a short-term concern.

I should also compare Apple with competitors. Samsung has already taken market share in the U.S., and their foldable phones are gaining traction. Apple's entry into this market could help regain some share but might face pricing pressures. The curved glass design might differentiate them further, but it's a high-risk, high-reward move.

Putting it all together, the long-term outlook seems positive due to the potential revenue from foldables and the premium pricing of the curved glass models. However, execution risks, supply chain dependencies, and competition are significant hurdles. The stock might see sustained growth if Apple successfully captures these markets, but investors should be cautious of short-term volatility around product launches.

### 🌟 **Conclusion**
Apple’s ambitious three-year iPhone redesign roadmap, featuring a **slimmed-down iPhone Air (2025)**, **foldable iPhone (2026)**, and **curved-glass iPhone 20 (2027)**, presents a **high-potential, high-risk** opportunity for long-term stock growth. The foldable iPhone alone could unlock **$65 billion in revenue by 2029** , while the curved-glass design aims to **celebrate the iPhone’s 20th anniversary** with a premium, niche appeal. However, **execution risks**, **supply chain dependencies**, and **intensifying competition** from Samsung and Chinese manufacturers must be closely monitored.

---

### 📊 **Analysis**
#### 1. **Strategic Importance of the Foldable iPhone**
- **Market Potential**: Foldables represent a **$65 billion opportunity** for Apple, with projected sales of **10-15 million units in 2027** and **45 million by 2029** .
- **Design & Features**: The foldable iPhone (codenamed V68) will feature a **book-style hinge**, **four cameras**, **Touch ID under display**, and **in-cell touch screen technology** to minimize crease lines .
- **Pricing**: Expected to start at **$1,999**, competing directly with Samsung’s Galaxy Z Fold series .

| Metric | Apple Foldable iPhone (2026) | Samsung Galaxy Z Fold 7 (2024) |
|-----------------------|-------------------------------|-----------------------------------|
| Price Range | $1,999–$2,419 | $1,999–$2,419 |
| Camera Specs | 4 cameras | 48MP main lens |
| Market Share Target | 10–15M units | 10M units |

#### 2. **Curved-Glass iPhone 20 (2027)**
- **Design**: A **radically new curved-glass design** to commemorate the iPhone’s 20th anniversary .
- **Software Integration**: Apple plans a **Liquid Glass-based iOS interface** optimized for curved displays .
- **Target Audience**: **Premium users** willing to pay a premium for exclusivity and innovation.

#### 3. **Risks & Challenges**
- **Competition**: Samsung leads the foldable market with **10M units shipped in 2024** , while Chinese manufacturers like Xiaomi and OPPO are also entering the space.
- **Supply Chain**: Apple’s reliance on **Samsung Display** for OLED panels and **Lens Technology** for ultra-thin glass introduces dependency risks.
- **Regulatory Risks**: Apple faces lawsuits over **App Store monopolies** (e.g., xAI suing Apple and OpenAI) .

---

### 📊 **Stock Implications**
#### 1. **Positive Catalysts**
- **Revenue Growth**: Foldables could add **high-single-digit EPS growth** by 2029 .
- **Institutional Confidence**: Institutional ownership of Apple stock has steadily increased to **64.64%** .
- **Analyst Targets**: BofA maintains a **$250 price target** (vs. current $228.40) .

#### 2. **Risks**
- **“Sell the News” Reaction**: The iPhone 17 launch (Sept 2025) may trigger short-term volatility due to **muted consumer buzz** .
- **Pricing Pressure**: Foldable iPhones may cannibalize sales of higher-margin Pro models .

---

### 📊 **Conclusion**
Apple’s multi-year iPhone roadmap positions it to **redefine the smartphone market** with innovative designs and premium pricing. However, success hinges on **execution, supply chain resilience**, and **competitive differentiation**. Long-term investors should **hold with caution**, monitoring key milestones like the **2026 foldable iPhone launch** and **2027 curved-glass iPhone 20 debut**.

|code|Ticker|Name|market_code|
|---|---|---|---|
|AAPL|AAPL.O|Apple|185|