Analyze and give a trade plan. High probability trade plan for a good 1:3RR

**Trade call - Long ETHUSD with 1 : 3+ risk-to-reward (RR) 🏹**
Buy the ongoing 4-hour pull-back into the $3,330–3,300 demand shelf, place a hard stop at $3,200, and aim for $3,750 (first scale-out) and $3,900 (full target). Average entry ≈ $3,315 → base risk 115 pts, blended reward 435 pts → RR ≈ 1 : 3.8.

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## Why this set-up stacks the odds in our favour

| Dimension | Observation | Implication |
|-----------|-------------|-------------|
| Trend bias | The June–July rally carved a clear series of higher highs/higher lows; price is now correcting barely 11 % off the $3,900 swing peak. | We’re trading **with** the prevailing medium-term up-trend, not against it. |
| Structural support | $3,300 is the March breakout shelf, a 38.2 % Fib retrace of July’s impulse, and sits just above the 200-SMA on H4. | Confluence = high probability that dip buyers defend this zone. |
| Momentum exhaustion | RSI-14 on H4 printed 27 (deep oversold) while MACD is crossing higher on a *bullish divergence* as volumes spike. | Classic conditions for a mean-reversion pop. |
| Fundamental flow | Net spot-ETF inflows remain +$6 B YTD despite one-day outflow noise; validator count > 1.1 M and staking yield 3.2 %. | Real-money demand and yield utility underpin the bull case. |
| Macro calendar | No major Fed or inflation prints until 7 Aug; crypto volatility tends to compress in such event-light windows. | Less macro headline risk amplifies technical levels’ importance. |

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## Concrete trade plan (1–3 week horizon)

| Element | Parameters | Rationale |
|---------|------------|-----------|
| Entry | Layer 50 % at $3,340, 50 % at $3,300 | Captures the entire support pocket and improves average price. |
| Stop | $3,200 (hard), or **daily close** < $3,230 if you prefer a soft stop | Below the July 15 pivot low & 50 % Fib—break here invalidates the structure. |
| Targets | **T1** $3,570 (partial; 50 %) • **T2** $3,750 (move stop to breakeven) • **Final** $3,900 | Gives a blended RR ≈ 1 : 3.8 while letting a runner participate if the up-trend resumes full force. |
| Sizing | Risk only 1 % of total equity on the 115-pt stop | Keeps emotions in check and leaves room for re-entry if needed. |
| Optional yield overlay | Convert filled spot to stETH or rETH once price is >$3,450; you’ll keep ~3.2 % APY while the swing plays out. | Earn while you wait—turns “dead” margin into productive collateral. |

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### Alternative scenario—fail-safe switch 🛡️
If ETH prints a **4-hour close below $3,200**, abandon the long bias and look for a **short-the-bounce** into $3,150 with stop $3,270 and target $2,850 (also 1 : 3 RR). This keeps you adaptable without revenge-trading.

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## Checklist before pulling the trigger ✔️

1. Confirm RSI remains sub-35 and MACD ticking up on the next 4-hour candle.
2. Watch the ETF flow tape (10:30 am ET release). Green = extra confidence.
3. Position size strictly to the pre-defined 1 % risk.
4. Set alerts at $3,340 and $3,300—let the market come to you; don’t chase.

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### Final thought 🌱
Markets rarely give textbook 1 : 3 set-ups **and** solid fundamentals at the same time—Ethereum’s current pull-back is one of those moments. Stick to the plan, respect the stop, and let probability do its job. Happy trading and manage that risk! 🚀