How might AMGN's earnings surprise affect its stock?

Amgen's potential earnings surprise could significantly impact its stock performance, considering the following factors:

1. Current Expectations and Recent Performance: Analysts expect Amgen to post earnings of $4.18 per share and revenue of $8.06 billion for the fiscal quarter ending March 31, 2025. This estimate reflects a year-over-year earnings growth of approximately 5.56%.
2. Historical Performance and Analyst Confidence: Amgen has a track record of surpassing consensus EPS estimates four times over the last four quarters. The company's stock has outpaced the S&P 500's performance, and analysts have a positive outlook, as indicated by the Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) rating.
3. Market Reaction to Earnings Reports: The market has reacted positively to Amgen's earnings reports, with the stock price increasing after the company delivered earnings surprises in previous quarters. This suggests that investors may react favorably to another earnings beat.
4. Impact on Future Estimates and Ratings: A earnings surprise could lead to upward revisions in future earnings estimates, as analysts incorporate the company's strong performance into their projections. This could further boost investor confidence and potentially drive the stock price higher.
5. Broader Market and Sector Performance: It's important to consider the broader market and sector performance. Amgen's stock has outperformed the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund over the past year, indicating a strong relative performance.

In conclusion, Amgen's potential earnings surprise has the potential to positively impact its stock, given the company's historical performance, analyst confidence, and recent market trends. However, it's important to consider the broader market and sector performance when assessing the potential impact on the stock.