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How will the Amazon Stock develop with in the next 30 days, if it is a buy option, pls. list potential buy and Stopp Loss levels

8/3/2025 06:49pm

``` The deep research logic is organized as follows: Okay, let's tackle this question about Amazon's stock development over the next 30 days. The user wants to know if it's a buy option and the potential buy and stop-loss levels. First, I need to check all the provided references and background information to gather relevant data. Starting with the earnings release date, Reference 1 says it's on 2025-07-31, which is in the past. The current date is 2025-08-03, so the earnings have already been released. The user might be interested in post-earnings analysis. Looking at the earnings results, Reference 7 mentions that shares dropped 7.7% to $214.75 on August 1, 2025, despite AWS revenue beating expectations. The operating income missed estimates, which caused the sell-off. Also, AWS's operating income was $10.2B vs. expected $10.9B. The company is investing heavily in AI, which might pressure margins. Next, the technical analysis from References 2, 3, and 20. The time-series trend shows a bullish trend for 72 days, but the continuation probability is 50%. The support and resistance levels from Reference 3 are wide support at $236.45 and narrow support at $241.65. The current price is below the wide support, which is bearish. The forecast advice is to sell with a bearish trend. The RSI from Reference 20 is 24.56, which is oversold, but the MACD is -2.33, indicating bearish momentum. The moving average is $228.57, which is above the current price of $214.75, suggesting a potential bearish crossover. The trend similarity forecast from Reference 4 shows a bearish forecast with a 35.89% expected max gain and a 32.54% max loss. The mean forecast prices for the next few days are around $230-233, but the confidence intervals are wide. The stock's historical win rate is 53.81%, similar to the market's 53.5%, so no edge there. Analyst ratings from Reference 24 show mostly Strong Buy and Buy ratings with price targets ranging from $265 to $297. However, the stock price dropped after the earnings report, so the analysts might be adjusting their targets. The user's profile mentions a preference for technical analysis and the NASDAQ Composite, so combining fundamental and technical insights is key. Putting this together, the stock is technically bearish with support levels around $236 and $241. The recent drop post-earnings indicates short-term weakness. The upcoming events don't show any corporate announcements until after September, so the market might focus on the earnings reaction and technical levels. The user is looking for buy levels, but the technicals suggest a bearish setup. However, the RSI is oversold, which could be a buying opportunity if the price bounces off the support. Potential buy levels could be around the narrow support at $241.65, with a stop-loss below the wide support at $236.45. Alternatively, if the price breaks below $236, a stop-loss there would be prudent. The target could be the next resistance level at $252.04. But given the bearish trend and recent sell-off, the risk-reward might not be favorable unless there's a strong bounce. The user's moderate risk tolerance suggests being cautious here. ``` ### **Conclusion** 🎯 **Amazon (AMZN) presents a mixed outlook over the next 30 days, with bearish technical signals dominating but potential upside from upcoming catalysts.** The stock is currently trading below critical support levels, and short-term price action suggests a cautious stance. However, strategic entry points and stop-loss levels can be identified based on technical analysis and market context. --- ### **Analysis** #### **1. Technical Setup** | Metric | Data (as of 2025-08-03) | Implication | |----------------------------|---------------------------|-------------| | **Current Price** | $214.75 | Below wide support ($236.45) | | **RSI** | 24.56 (oversold) | Potential bounce, but bearish momentum persists | | **MACD** | -2.33 (bearish) | Short-term downtrend confirmed | | **Moving Average (20-day)**| $228.57 | Price below MA, bearish crossover likely | | **Support Levels** | Wide: $236.45; Narrow: $241.65 | Current price ($214.75) far below support | | **Resistance Levels** | Wide: $252.04; Narrow: $257.24 | Next upside targets | **Key Takeaway**: The stock is in a bearish trend with no immediate bullish reversal signals. However, the oversold RSI (24.56) suggests a potential short-term bounce if prices stabilize near the $236.45 support level. --- #### **2. Market Context** | Catalyst | Recent Data | Impact | |------------------------------|--------------|--------| | **Earnings Reaction** | -7.7% drop post-Q2 results | Profit miss and margin pressure weigh on sentiment | | **AWS Growth** | 17% YoY increase | Long-term growth driver, but short-term margin concerns | | **AI Investments** | Heavy spending ($31.4B CapEx) | High risk-reward tradeoff for future profitability | | **Competition** | AWS faces pressure from Azure and Google Cloud | Market leadership at risk | **Key Takeaway**: Amazon’s fundamentals remain strong (13% revenue growth, 17% AWS expansion), but short-term profitability concerns and technical weakness make the stock vulnerable. --- #### **3. Analyst Sentiment** | Metric | Data (as of 2025-08-03) | Implication | |----------------------------|---------------------------|-------------| | **Price Targets** | $265–$297 (average: $280) | Analysts see upside, but recent price drop may trigger target revisions | | **Ratings** | 12 “Strong Buy,” 7 “Buy” | Consensus bullish, but technicals contradict sentiment | | **Stock Buyback** | $30B authorized | Potential upside catalyst if executed | **Key Takeaway**: Analysts remain optimistic, but the stock’s technical setup and recent underperformance suggest caution. --- ### **Strategy** #### **Buy Levels** | Level | Price | Rationale | |-------------|-------|-----------| | **Primary** | $236.45 (wide support) | Entry if price stabilizes here post-earnings | | **Secondary** | $241.65 (narrow support) | Higher risk-reward if price breaks above $236.45 | #### **Stop-Loss Levels** | Level | Price | Rationale | |-------------|-------|-----------| | **Primary** | $230.00 | Below wide support, confirms bearish trend | | **Secondary** | $225.00 | Further breakdown signals long-term weakness | #### **Target Levels** | Level | Price | Rationale | |-------------|-------|-----------| | **Short-Term** | $252.04 (wide resistance) | First upside target if bullish breakout occurs | | **Long-Term** | $257.24 (narrow resistance) | Potential upside if AWS growth accelerates | --- ### **Final Thoughts** 🧠 Amazon’s stock is in a technical bearish setup but offers strategic entry points for long-term investors. The $236.45 support level is critical for a bullish reversal, while the $252.04 resistance level represents the next upside target. Given the recent profit miss and margin pressure, **a cautious approach with tight stop-loss levels is recommended**.