How did ALK's Q4 2023 earnings surprise investors?

Alaska Air Group (ALK) delivered an earnings surprise in Q4 2023, surpassing market expectations in both earnings per share (EPS) and revenue, driven by strong holiday bookings and improved close-in demand.

1. **Earnings Per Share (EPS) Surprise**:
- The estimated EPS for Q4 2023 was $0.18.
- The actual EPS was $0.3, indicating a significant positive surprise.

2. **Revenue Surprise**:
- The estimated revenue for the quarter was $2.55 billion.
- The actual revenue was also $2.55 billion, representing a precise match and no surprise.
3. **Stock Performance and Market Reaction**:
- Despite the earnings surprise, the stock experienced a minor decline of 3.24%.
- However, the stock outperformed the S&P 500 and other airline competitors on a strong trading day.
4. **Guidance Updates and Repurchase Activity**:
- Alaska Air lifted its Q4 revenue guidance, expecting growth of 2.25% to 3.25%.
- The company increased its repurchase activity, planning to repurchase $145 million in shares for 2023.
5. **Investor Sentiment and Analyst Views**:
- Investor sentiment was mixed, with some positive adjustments in analyst estimates reflecting confidence in the company's performance.
- The Zacks Rank assigned to Alaska Air indicated a "Hold" rating, suggesting a neutral outlook with potential for steady performance.

In conclusion, Alaska Air Group's Q4 2023 earnings exceeded expectations, leading to positive revisions in guidance and repurchase activity, despite some volatility in fuel costs. The stock's performance was mixed, with investors showing interest in the company's strategic moves and long-term potential.