Will ALGN's Q1 2025 EPS beat forecasts?

**Align Technology's Q1 2025 EPS is likely to beat forecasts.** Here's a detailed analysis to support this conclusion:

1. **Consensus and Estimates**: The estimated EPS for Align Technology in Q1 2025 is $1.52. This is the consensus that analysts have regarding Align's earnings for the period.

2. **Historical Performance**: Align Technology has a track record of beating EPS estimates. According to the data, over the last two years, ALGN has beaten EPS estimates 63% of the time. This suggests a higher likelihood that the company's actual EPS in Q1 2025 will exceed expectations.
3. **Recent Performance and Guidance**: In Q4 2024, Align Technology's Non-GAAP EPS was $2.44, which missed the estimate by $0.01. However, the company's revenue exceeded expectations by $3.96 million. The fiscal 2025 business outlook indicates a range of $965 million to $985 million for Q1 2025, which is slightly below the estimated revenue of $1.02 billion. Despite the slight miss in Q4, the company's guidance for Q1 suggests a cautious optimism that is in line with or slightly below current estimates.

4. **Market Sentiment and Analysts' Views**: Piper Sandler recently cut Align Technology's price target to $270, which may reflect a more conservative outlook. However, this does not necessarily indicate a negative sentiment regarding Q1 2025 EPS. The market's reaction to such analyst actions is complex and can be influenced by various factors, including broader market conditions and company-specific news.
5. **Strategic Moves**: Align Technology has announced a $1 billion buyback program, which could be a sign of the company's confidence in its financial health and potential to exceed earnings expectations as it looks to return value to shareholders.

In conclusion, while there is always some uncertainty, the combination of Align Technology's historical beat rate, the company's guidance, and the strategic buyback program suggest that Q1 2025 EPS may very well beat forecasts.