Why did AFCG's Q4 earnings miss forecasts so badly?

AFCG's Q4 earnings fell short of forecasts due to several key factors:

1. **Revenue Shortfall**: The company's total revenue for the quarter was $7.64 million, which was significantly lower than the consensus estimate of $11.59 million. This shortfall can be attributed to decreased loan originations and lower interest income from loans on non-accrual status.
2. **Interest Income Decline**: The interest income for 2024 was $51.9 million, down from $70.2 million in 2023. This decrease was primarily due to lower interest income from certain subsidiaries and less capital deployed in loans exits and prepayments.
3. **Loan Prepayments and Exits**: There was a decrease in interest income due to less capital deployed relating to loan exits and prepayments. However, there was an increase in fee income from loan exits and prepayments, which partially offset the decline in interest income.

In summary, AFCG's Q4 earnings miss was primarily due to lower-than-expected revenue from loan originations and interest income, coupled with increased loan prepayments and exits.

|code|Ticker|Name|Date|Revenue Surprise|Total Revenue|market_code|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|AFCG|AFCG.O|Advanced Flower|2024 Q1|-2140000|1.4757897E7|185|
|AFCG|AFCG.O|Advanced Flower|2024 Q2|860000|1.8384246E7|185|
|AFCG|AFCG.O|Advanced Flower|2024 Q3|-3530000|8882316|185|
|AFCG|AFCG.O|Advanced Flower|2024 Q4|-3950000|7636904|185|