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With Trump capricious temperament，is more tariff on the way？

4/5/2025 03:42pm

``` The deep research logic is organized as follows: Okay, let's tackle this question: "With Trump's capricious temperament, is more tariff on the way?" The user is asking if there will be additional tariffs given Trump's unpredictable nature. First, I need to look at the references provided. The references mention several instances where Trump has already implemented significant tariffs, like the 10% baseline tariff and higher rates on specific countries. There's also mention of potential future tariffs, such as those on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, which are exempt for now but could be targeted later. The user's profile indicates they're interested in sectors like AI, 5G, and Lidar, and they hold MVIS. So, I should consider how additional tariffs might affect these areas. For example, tariffs on semiconductors could impact tech companies reliant on those components, which ties into the user's interests. Looking at the references, there's a mention of Trump's history of using tariffs as a negotiating tool. He's done this before with Mexico and Canada, and there's a possibility he'll use similar tactics again. The references also note that some countries are exempt for now, but that could change. Additionally, the economic impact of existing tariffs is significant. Lawrence Summers warned of a $30 trillion loss, which is a huge number. This economic strain might push Trump to seek more protectionist measures to offset losses, leading to more tariffs. The user is concerned about margin calls and market volatility, which are relevant here. More tariffs could exacerbate these issues, especially if they target sectors the user is invested in. I should also consider the political landscape. The Senate has shown some pushback, but Trump's base might support his aggressive policies. This political support could embolden him to continue or escalate tariffs. In terms of structure, I need to present a conclusion upfront, then break down the analysis into key points. Each point should cite relevant references. For example, the mention of exemptions for certain goods (like semiconductors) in reference 2 and 7 could be a point where future tariffs might be applied. I also need to address the user's specific interests. Since they hold MVIS, which is related to 5G, I should note how tariffs on components or raw materials could affect that sector. Finally, the visualization requirement means I need to include the exact queries from the references. For instance, the query about China's 34% tariff and the potential for more tariffs on semiconductors should be visualized as per the instructions. Putting it all together, the answer should outline the likelihood of more tariffs based on Trump's past actions, economic pressures, political support, and sector-specific impacts relevant to the user's portfolio. ``` **Conclusion:** With Trump’s history of aggressive, unpredictable trade policy and his stated goal of "supercharging" U.S. manufacturing, **additional tariffs are highly likely**, particularly targeting sectors like semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and critical minerals. Below is a detailed analysis: --- ### **1. Trump’s Track Record of Escalation** - **Baseline Tariff + Reciprocal Structure**: Trump’s current policy imposes a **10% universal tariff** on all imports, with higher rates for "worst offenders" (e.g., China at 34%, Vietnam at 46%). This framework leaves room for further escalation, especially for countries that resist U.S. demands. - **Negotiation Tool**: Trump has historically used tariffs as leverage. For example, he threatened 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada in 2025 to renegotiate trade deals. Retaliatory tariffs from China and the EU (e.g., China’s 34% tariff on U.S. goods) may prompt counter-retaliation. --- ### **2. Sectors at Risk of Future Tariffs** - **Semiconductors**: Currently exempt, but Trump’s focus on "critical technologies" (e.g., AI, 5G) could lead to tariffs to protect domestic chipmakers like Intel (INTC). - **Pharmaceuticals**: Exemptions may be revisited if U.S. drug prices rise due to import costs. - **Critical Minerals**: Trump hinted at targeting rare earths and lithium, which are vital for Lidar sensors and 5G infrastructure. --- ### **3. Economic and Political Pressures Driving Escalation** - **Margin Call Risks**: The current market rout (e.g., Dow down 5.5% on April 4) and record margin debt ($937B in January 2025) could force Trump to act preemptively to stabilize markets. - **Political Support**: While some Senate Republicans rebuked tariffs, Trump’s base remains loyal. He may double down to rally support ahead of midterms. --- ### **4. Impact on Key Sectors (User’s Focus)** - **AI/5G/Lidar**: Tariffs on Chinese semiconductors (e.g., Huawei, TSMC) could disrupt supply chains for Lidar sensors and autonomous driving. Companies like MVIS (user’s holding) may face cost pressures if tariffs target raw materials. - **Apple (AAPL)**: 90% of Apple’s manufacturing is in China. Further tariffs could force price hikes (e.g., iPhone 17 at $2,300) or margin compression. --- ### **5. Strategic Recommendations** - **Monitor Pre-Market Turnover**: High pre-market activity (>5M shares) signals sector-specific volatility. - **Diversify into Tariff-Resilient Stocks**: Focus on domestic AI/5G plays (e.g., NVIDIA, MVIS) with minimal import exposure. - **Avoid Leveraged Positions**: Tariff-driven margin calls could trigger cascading selloffs. --- Trump Unveils Sweeping Tariff Policy On Imports |code|stock code|stock name|Last Price|Last Change|Theme|market_code| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |LZB|LZB.N|La-Z-Boy|37.33|1.41266||169| |X|X.N|United States Steel|38.29|-1.69448||169| |VMC|VMC.N|Vulcan Materials|230.74|-2.7152369999999997||169| |MTW|MTW.N|The Manitowoc|7.83|-2.732919||169| |TTEK|TTEK.O|Tetra Tech|29.1|-3.032323||185| |TPR|TPR.N|Tapestry|62.94|-3.303119||169| |MSFT|MSFT.O|Microsoft|359.84|-3.556592||185| |ACM|ACM.N|AECOM|89.25|-3.752831||169| |URI|URI.N|United Rentals|564.57|-4.4995519999999996||169| |LMT|LMT.N|Lockheed Martin|432.15|-4.976032||169| Trump Expands Tariff Policy Amid International Backlash |code|stock code|stock name|Last Price|Last Change|Theme|market_code| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |LZB|LZB.N|La-Z-Boy|37.33|1.41266||169| |X|X.N|United States Steel|38.29|-1.69448||169| |VMC|VMC.N|Vulcan Materials|230.74|-2.7152369999999997||169| |MTW|MTW.N|The Manitowoc|7.83|-2.732919||169| |TTEK|TTEK.O|Tetra Tech|29.1|-3.032323||185| |TPR|TPR.N|Tapestry|62.94|-3.303119||169| |MSFT|MSFT.O|Microsoft|359.84|-3.556592||185| |ACM|ACM.N|AECOM|89.25|-3.752831||169| |URI|URI.N|United Rentals|564.57|-4.4995519999999996||169| |LMT|LMT.N|Lockheed Martin|432.15|-4.976032||169| --- **Final Take**: Trump’s "reciprocal tariff" framework is inherently escalatory. Investors should brace for **sector-specific volatility** and prioritize companies with domestic supply chains or tariff exemptions. The AI/5G/Lidar sectors remain vulnerable, but MVIS’s focus on U.S.-based 5G infrastructure may offer relative resilience.