Will asml beat earnings?

**ASML is likely to beat earnings**, and here's the analysis to support this conclusion:

1. **Consensus Estimates**: The projected EPS for ASML in 2024 Q3 is $5.66, with a revenue estimate of $8 billion. This suggests that analysts expect the company to maintain its strong financial performance.
2. **Historical Performance**: ASML has a history of surpassing earnings expectations. In the most recent quarter, the company reported an EPS surprise of $0.47, indicating that it exceeded expectations by a significant margin. This track record of outperforming estimates is a strong indicator that ASML is likely to beat earnings again.

3. **Recent Trends and Outlook**:
- **Market Performance**: Despite a 17.9% return loss over the past month, ASML's stock has a 2.41% gain over the last 52 weeks, which suggests resilience and investor confidence.
- **Long-Term Outlook**: The company's long-term outlook remains favorable, despite near-term noise and uncertainty. ASML has a backlog covering the majority of expected revenues for 2025, which provides a solid foundation for future growth.
- **Industry Leadership**: ASML is the leader across all types of lithography and the only company selling extreme ultra-violet (EUV) lithography tools, which are critical for leading-edge chip manufacturing. This strategic positioning is likely to translate into continued strong financial performance.
4. **Analyst Expectations**: Despite some concerns, analysts have not significantly revised their estimates downward, and the company's stock has recently seen a 1.5% increase, which may reflect growing confidence among investors.
5. **Market Position and Growth Prospects**: ASML's dominant position in the lithography market and its ability to ship critical equipment to leading chip manufacturers strongly suggest that the company will continue to benefit from the ongoing demand for semiconductor equipment.

In conclusion, ASML's strong historical performance, recent market trends, and favorable long-term outlook all point to a high probability of beating earnings expectations in 2024 Q3.