XAUUSD forecast now
8/19/2024 09:41pm
The XAU/USD exchange rate is forecasted to increase by 2.57% in the next 24 hours, rising from the current rate of $2,487.94 to $2,551.86. Currently, the sentiment in the XAU/USD market is estimated to be bullish. The 14-day RSI reading is 67.04, suggesting neutral conditions. In the last 30 days, the volatility of the XAU to XAU has been 1.55%. The current XAU to USD exchange rate is above the 50-day SMA, which is currently sitting at $2,407.11. The current rate is above the 200-day simple moving average, which is positioned at $2,281.16.
1. **Technical Indicators Suggest a Bullish Bias**:
- The pair holds above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the April/May rally at $2,326.50, a relevant support level.
- Technical indicators turned higher within positive levels, although with limited upward strength.
- The 4-hour chart indicates a neutral to bullish sentiment, with the price trading around a bullish 20 SMA and the 100 and 200 SMAs converging below the Fibonacci level.
2. **Fundamental Factors Influencing the Forecast**:
- Rising gold demand from robust over-the-counter market investments, consistent central bank purchases, and safe-haven flows amid Middle East geopolitical risk act as a tailwind for XAU/USD.
- The US CPI data released after the last analysis showed persistent inflationary pressures, with the monthly PPI rising 0.5% in April and the YoY increase remaining above the desired 2% level.
- The Federal Reserve's stance on inflation and its impact on monetary policy decisions are crucial for the XAU/USD exchange rate.
3. **Market Sentiment and Volatility**:
- The sentiment in the XAU/USD market is bullish, which could contribute to price increases.
- The volatility of the XAU to XAU has been 1.55% over the last 30 days, indicating a relatively stable market.
4. **Long-Term Forecast and Potential Targets**:
- For the next 5 years, the XAU/USD exchange rate is forecasted to reach $3,625.22, representing a 45.71% increase from the current rate.
- The XAU/USD rate could go up to $2,529.56 in the next 10 days, showing a 1.67% increase.
In conclusion, the combination of bullish technical indicators, rising gold demand, and positive market sentiment suggests that the XAU/USD exchange rate has the potential to increase in the near term. However, investors should monitor upcoming economic data and the Federal Reserve's actions, as these can significantly impact the gold market.