Could asts be the next nvidia when considering potential growth in the next 5 years?

**AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) is not likely to become the next Nvidia in the next five years**. While both companies are high-growth technology stocks, there are significant differences in their growth trajectories, market positions, and industry dynamics that suggest ASTS is not on the same trajectory as Nvidia.

1. **Revenue and Net Income Growth**: ASTS has not generated any revenue in the past three years and has experienced a significant decline in net income, with a year-on-year growth rate of -164.88%. In contrast, Nvidia has seen impressive growth in net income, with a year-on-year growth rate of 628.39%. This indicates that ASTS is currently facing challenges in maintaining profitability, which is a critical factor for sustained growth.

|Ticker|Name|Date|Net Income|code|market_code|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|ASTS.O|AST SpaceMobile|2021 Q3|1.6804E7|ASTS|186|
|ASTS.O|AST SpaceMobile|2021 Q4|-1.2803E7|ASTS|186|
|ASTS.O|AST SpaceMobile|2022 Q1|-3.7903E7|ASTS|186|
|ASTS.O|AST SpaceMobile|2022 Q2|-8068000|ASTS|186|
|ASTS.O|AST SpaceMobile|2022 Q3|-3.2052E7|ASTS|186|
|ASTS.O|AST SpaceMobile|2022 Q4|-2.5089E7|ASTS|186|
|ASTS.O|AST SpaceMobile|2023 Q1|-4.5216E7|ASTS|186|
|ASTS.O|AST SpaceMobile|2023 Q2|-4.9589E7|ASTS|186|
|ASTS.O|AST SpaceMobile|2023 Q3|-5.0748E7|ASTS|186|
|ASTS.O|AST SpaceMobile|2023 Q4|-7.7124E7|ASTS|186|

|Ticker|Name|Date|Net Income|code|market_code|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|NVDA.O|Nvidia|2022 Q2|2.374E9|NVDA|185|
|NVDA.O|Nvidia|2022 Q3|2.464E9|NVDA|185|
|NVDA.O|Nvidia|2022 Q4|3.003E9|NVDA|185|
|NVDA.O|Nvidia|2023 Q1|1.618E9|NVDA|185|
|NVDA.O|Nvidia|2023 Q2|6.56E8|NVDA|185|
|NVDA.O|Nvidia|2023 Q3|6.8E8|NVDA|185|
|NVDA.O|Nvidia|2023 Q4|1.414E9|NVDA|185|
|NVDA.O|Nvidia|2024 Q1|2.043E9|NVDA|185|
|NVDA.O|Nvidia|2024 Q2|6.188E9|NVDA|185|
|NVDA.O|Nvidia|2024 Q3|9.243E9|NVDA|185|

2. **Market Position and Valuation**: ASTS is developing a satellite-based cellular broadband network, which is a niche market. Nvidia, on the other hand, is a leading player in the GPU market, which has a broader and more established market. ASTS's stock is currently trading at a high valuation discount, with a price target that suggests a potential downside. Nvidia, on the other hand, has a strong financial position and is expected to grow its revenue significantly.
3. **Technical Analysis**: The technical indicators for ASTS show a strong buy sentiment based on moving averages, but a neutral to sell sentiment from oscillators. For Nvidia, both moving averages and oscillators suggest a strong buy sentiment. This suggests that Nvidia's stock is currently in a more favorable technical position.

|Ticker|Name|Date|RSI|KDJ|MACD|code|market_code|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|ASTS.O|AST SpaceMobile|20240816|84.3368|72.6693|1.8396|ASTS|186|

|Ticker|Name|Date|RSI|KDJ|MACD|code|market_code|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|NVDA.O|Nvidia|20240816|75.0154|117.6742|4.5716|NVDA|185|

4. **Industry Trends**: ASTS is operating in the satellite communications sector, which has its own set of challenges and opportunities. Nvidia, on the other hand, is benefiting from the growing demand for GPUs in the AI and data center markets. ASTS's success will depend on its ability to capitalize on the satellite market, while Nvidia's growth is more closely tied to the broader technology trends in AI and data centers.
5. **Strategic Positioning**: ASTS's strategic focus is on building a satellite-based network to provide cellular coverage in areas where terrestrial networks are unavailable. While this is a commendable goal, it is a niche market that may not generate the same level of demand as Nvidia's products, which are integral to the functioning of data centers and AI applications.
6. **Financial Health**: ASTS has a negative net income and is spending more than it generates, with a net loss of $131.35 million in the second quarter of 2024. Nvidia, on the other hand, has a strong financial position with a net margin of 57% in the most recent quarter. This financial health is a critical factor in sustaining growth and investing in research and development to capitalize on market opportunities.

In conclusion, while ASTS is a high-growth stock with potential, the current financial data and market positioning do not strongly suggest that it will follow the same trajectory as Nvidia, which is a more established player in a high-growth market. The differences in their market positions, revenue streams, and financial health make it unlikely that ASTS will become the next Nvidia in the next five years.