What is the percentage risk that Archer Aviation will fail?

The percentage risk that Archer Aviation will fail can be estimated by analyzing various financial metrics and market indicators. Here are the key points to consider:

1. Financial Performance: Archer Aviation has reported a net loss of $116.5 million and a diluted EPS of -$0.36 for the most recent quarter. This indicates that the company is currently unprofitable.

2. Growth Rates: The company has experienced a negative net income year-on-year growth rate of -3.01%, which suggests a potential decline in financial performance.

3. Debt and Free Cash Flow: Archer Aviation has a negative free cash flow of $86.71 million, which raises concerns about its ability to generate cash to support operations and investments.

4. Analyst Ratings and Price Targets: Despite the negative financial metrics, analysts have set an average 12-month price target of $7.88 for Archer Aviation, indicating a potential upside from the current price.
5. Market Sentiment: The stock has been given a "Buy" analyst rating consensus, which suggests that analysts are optimistic about the company's future prospects.
6. Stock Price Forecast: The average stock price forecast for Archer Aviation is $8.00, which represents a significant potential upside from the current price.

Based on these points, while there are indicators of financial distress, such as the negative net income and free cash flow, the positive analyst ratings and price targets suggest that some investors have confidence in the company's future prospects. Therefore, the percentage risk of failure could be interpreted differently depending on an investor's risk tolerance and investment horizon. It is important to conduct thorough due diligence and consider personal financial circumstances before making any investment decisions.