Carvana will be reporting earnings tomorrow. Made on historical data and current financials, do you feel that this stock will go up or down

**Carvana's stock is likely to face volatility around earnings release**: Based on the analysis of historical earnings data, financial performance indicators, and market sentiment, here's a comprehensive perspective on Carvana's stock movement post-earnings:

1. **Recent Earnings History**: Carvana has reported significant losses in the past, with net income of -$1.44 billion and -$508 million for the quarters ending December 31, 2023, and September 30, 2023, respectively. However, there has been an improvement, with a net income of -$286 million for the quarter ending March 31, 2024.

|Ticker|Name|Net Income|Date|code|market_code|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|CVNA.N|Carvana|-4.39E8|2022 Q2|CVNA|169|
|CVNA.N|Carvana|-5.08E8|2022 Q3|CVNA|169|
|CVNA.N|Carvana|-1.441E9|2022 Q4|CVNA|169|
|CVNA.N|Carvana|-2.86E8|2023 Q1|CVNA|169|
|CVNA.N|Carvana|-1.05E8|2023 Q2|CVNA|169|
|CVNA.N|Carvana|7.41E8|2023 Q3|CVNA|169|
|CVNA.N|Carvana|-2.0E8|2023 Q4|CVNA|169|
|CVNA.N|Carvana|4.9E7|2024 Q1|CVNA|169|

2. **Revenue Trends**: The company's revenue has also shown fluctuations, with a high of $3.88 billion for the quarter ending June 30, 2023, and a recent decline to $2.42 billion for the quarter ending December 31, 2023. For the quarter ending March 31, 2024, revenue was $2.61 billion.

|Ticker|Name|Total Revenue|Date|code|market_code|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|CVNA.N|Carvana|3.884E9|2022 Q2|CVNA|169|
|CVNA.N|Carvana|3.386E9|2022 Q3|CVNA|169|
|CVNA.N|Carvana|2.837E9|2022 Q4|CVNA|169|
|CVNA.N|Carvana|2.606E9|2023 Q1|CVNA|169|
|CVNA.N|Carvana|2.968E9|2023 Q2|CVNA|169|
|CVNA.N|Carvana|2.773E9|2023 Q3|CVNA|169|
|CVNA.N|Carvana|2.424E9|2023 Q4|CVNA|169|
|CVNA.N|Carvana|3.061E9|2024 Q1|CVNA|169|

3. **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: The diluted EPS has been negative in the past, with a low of -$2.35 for the quarter ending June 30, 2023, and an improvement to -$0.55 for the quarter ending September 30, 2023. However, it turned positive to $0.23 for the quarter ending March 31, 2024.

|Ticker|Name|Diluted EPS|Date|code|market_code|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|CVNA.N|Carvana|-2.35|2022 Q2|CVNA|169|
|CVNA.N|Carvana|-2.67|2022 Q3|CVNA|169|
|CVNA.N|Carvana||2022 Q4|CVNA|169|
|CVNA.N|Carvana|-1.51|2023 Q1|CVNA|169|
|CVNA.N|Carvana|-0.55|2023 Q2|CVNA|169|
|CVNA.N|Carvana|3.6|2023 Q3|CVNA|169|
|CVNA.N|Carvana||2023 Q4|CVNA|169|
|CVNA.N|Carvana|0.23|2024 Q1|CVNA|169|

4. **Growth Rates**: The company's net income has shown a substantial year-on-year growth rate of 117.13% as of March 31, 2024. The total revenue year-on-year growth rate is more modest at 17.46%.

5. **Analyst Expectations**: Analysts expect Carvana to report a breakeven second-quarter earnings per share on revenue of $3.2 billion. This suggests that while earnings may be stable, the market is more focused on revenue growth.
6. **Stock Price Reaction**: Historically, there has been a positive stock price movement after earnings reports, with significant increases of 33.77% and 32.09% following the Q1 and Q4 earnings reports, respectively. However, the percentage change from July 31, 2023, to August 4, 2023, was only 3.23%, indicating a potential for modest movement.

|Ticker|Name|Interval Percentage Change|Date|code|market_code|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|CVNA.N|Carvana|3.2258064516128906|20230731-20230804|CVNA|169|

7. **Technical Indicators**: The stock's 10-day moving average is $128.58, and the 5-day moving average is $126.95 as of July 30, 2024. These indicators suggest a slight uptrend in the stock price in the short term.

|Ticker|Name|10-Day Moving Average|Date|code|market_code|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|CVNA.N|Carvana|128.5750|20240730|CVNA|169|

8. **Market Sentiment**: There is a consensus hold rating on Carvana, with analysts predicting a slight decrease in EPS for the upcoming quarter. This suggests that while there is no strong bullish or bearish sentiment, the market may be cautious about future earnings.

In conclusion, while Carvana has shown signs of improvement in its financials, the market's focus on revenue growth and the recent positive stock price movements after earnings reports indicate that the post-earnings movement could be positive. However, the modest revenue growth rate and cautious analyst sentiment suggest that the stock may not experience a significant up or down movement. Investors should monitor the earnings report and management's outlook for any surprises that could drive a more substantial reaction.