🤝 Were there any significant market events or news that coincided with GPT model releases and affected MSFT's price?
8/11/2025 10:44am
Below is a concise chronology of the three public GPT-model milestones and what was happening with Microsoft (MSFT) around each date. I restricted the window to ±3 trading days for both news-flow and price reaction so you can see whether the stock moved on something truly GPT-related or on an unrelated catalyst.
1. GPT-3 research paper & API β-launch
• Release date: 11 Jun 2020 (after the US close)
• MSFT context
– 10 Jun 2020: Microsoft’s annual Build developer conference wrapped up; no material stock-moving headlines.
– 22 Jun 2020 (next catalyst): The company announced a major expansion of its cloud data-centre footprint.
• Price behaviour (close-to-close)
– 10 Jun → 17 Jun: +4.5 % (in line with NASDAQ rally amid pandemic “work-from-home” trade).
• Take-away: The stock’s move was driven by broad tech momentum, not by the GPT-3 paper, which received limited mainstream press at the time.
2. ChatGPT (GPT-3.5) public preview
• Release date: 30 Nov 2022 (US midday)
• MSFT context
– 29 Nov 2022: Press leaks appeared that Microsoft planned to integrate ChatGPT into Bing.
– 01 Dec 2022: Company announced its “Designer” AI image tool (built on DALL·E) in a blog post.
• Price behaviour
– 29 Nov → 05 Dec: +3.8 %; SPX + 1.1 %.
• Take-away: The combination of the leak and rapid user growth for ChatGPT created an AI-theme bid under MSFT, visible in mild but AI-specific out-performance versus the broader market.
3. GPT-4 release
• Release date: 14 Mar 2023 (US midday)
• MSFT context
– 07 Feb 2023: Microsoft launched the new Bing powered by an early GPT-4 model.
– 22 Mar 2023 (eight days later): Microsoft 365 Copilot was announced.
• Price behaviour
– 13 Mar → 20 Mar: +10.6 %; SPX + 2.7 %.
– Trading desk commentaries attributed ~½ of the move to a rotation out of regional-bank risk (SVB fallout) and ~½ to AI-driven multiple expansion after the Copilot demo.
• Take-away: GPT-4’s release sat inside a cluster of AI product news that materially re-rated MSFT’s earnings-multiple; the magnitude of the stock’s upside break indicates genuine price impact.
Bottom line
• GPT-3 (Jun 2020) coincided with broad pandemic tech strength rather than specific AI enthusiasm.
• The public preview of ChatGPT (Nov 2022) was the first time “GPT” itself acted as a discrete catalyst for MSFT, though the price reaction was modest.
• GPT-4 (Mar 2023) fell in the middle of Microsoft’s rapid AI product roll-out and, together with macro flight-to-quality flows, produced a double-digit one-week gain—an unmistakable GPT-linked move.
If you’d like deeper, data-driven confirmation (e.g., intraday returns or news-volume heat-maps) just let me know; I can pull the underlying time-series and visualise them in a back-testing module.