What trends show ONBPO's earnings growth in 2024?

Old National Bancorp (ONBPO) is expected to experience a decline in earnings in 2024 compared to the previous year, primarily due to the impact of higher deposit costs and lower capital markets income in the first half of the year. However, the outlook for the full year is positive, with expectations of earnings recovery in 2025: 1. **Earnings Dip in 2024**: ONBPO's earnings are anticipated to fall by 8.6% year-over-year in 2024, reaching $1.77 per share, primarily due to the aforementioned factors. This decline is a result of the company's strategic initiatives and the broader economic conditions affecting the banking industry. 2. **Recovery in 2025**: The forecast for 2025 is more optimistic, with expected earnings growth of 10.6% year-over-year, reaching $1.96 per share. This rebound is attributed to the positive residential mortgage outlook, which is expected to grow by 9.1% year-over-year in 2025, and the company's strategic initiatives that are expected to contribute to long-term growth. 3. **Interest Rate Impact**: The upcoming interest rate cuts are expected to have a mixed effect on ONBPO's bottom line. While they will pressure the company's margin, they are anticipated to boost residential mortgage growth, which is a positive for the company's earnings recovery in 2025. 4. **Loan Growth and Diversification**: Old National Bancorp has been focusing on strategic initiatives, including the acquisition of CapStar Bank, which is expected to contribute to the company's loan portfolio growth. The company's loan portfolio grew by 1.9% in the first quarter of 2024, and the acquisition of CapStar is expected to result in a 7% increase in the loan portfolio size. This growth in loans, along with diversification of revenue streams, is likely to support the company's financial performance in the coming years. In conclusion, Old National Bancorp's earnings are expected to dip in 2024 due to higher deposit costs and lower capital markets income. However, the outlook for 2025 is positive, with expected earnings growth driven by the residential mortgage market and the company's strategic initiatives.