What risks could derail MDLZ's 2025 guidance?

Mondelez International (MDLZ) faces several risks that could derail its 2025 guidance: 1. **Country Risk**: MDLZ has a country risk score of 3.79, which is relatively high. This indicates that the company operates in environments that are susceptible to political, economic, and social instability, which could negatively impact its operations and financial performance. 2. **Financial Risk**: The company's financial risk is heightened by low liquidity and an over-reliance on equity. This could make it difficult for MDLZ to access capital and manage its financial obligations, particularly in a downturn. 3. **Global Supply Chain Disruptions**: As a global conglomerate, MDLZ is vulnerable to disruptions in the supply chain, which can lead to shortages, increased costs, and reduced profitability. The company has mentioned supply chain challenges, particularly in Europe, which could persist and worsen. 4. **Currency Fluctuations**: MDLZ is exposed to currency fluctuations, which can affect its financial results. The company has indicated that currency fluctuations could impact its earnings per share (EPS) by $0.09 for the year. This risk is heightened by the company's operations in emerging markets, where currency volatility is common. 5. **Consumer Behavior and Preferences**: MDLZ faces the challenge of adapting to rapidly shifting consumer preferences towards healthier and sustainable snack options. The company's portfolio is strong in confectioneries and snacks, which are subject to changing consumer tastes and health consciousness. 6. **Competitive Pressure**: The snack industry is competitive, and MDLZ faces pressure from competitors who may respond to pricing and market conditions. The company has indicated that pricing elasticity is a consideration, and that more pricing may need to happen to maintain margins. 7. **Geopolitical Tensions**: Ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as the conflict in Ukraine, can have indirect effects on MDLZ's operations, particularly in regions where the company has a significant presence. These tensions can lead to market disruptions and affect consumer confidence. 8. **Inflation and Input Costs**: MDLZ has experienced inflationary pressures, which can impact its gross profit margins. The company has indicated that certain commodities, such as cocoa, have seen spikes in cost, which can be passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices. However, inflation can also lead to reduced consumer purchasing power, which may offset any gains from higher pricing. 9. **Strategic Decisions**: The company's success is also dependent on its ability to make strategic decisions regarding brand investments, acquisitions, and divestitures. Poor decision-making in these areas could negatively impact the company's long-term growth and profitability. These risks, if not managed effectively, could derail MDLZ's 2025 guidance. The company's ability to navigate these challenges will be critical to its future performance.