What is the long term forecast for LLY

``` The deep research logic is organized as follows: Okay, let's tackle the user's question about the long-term forecast for Eli Lilly (LLY). The user is an investor interested in blue-chip stocks with a long-term horizon, so I need to focus on the company's fundamentals, growth prospects, and market position. First, I'll check the provided references. The user mentioned LLY's financials, analyst ratings, and recent news. From the data, LLY has strong revenue and EPS growth rates. The 3-year CAGR for net income is 30.22%, revenue at 25.62%, and EPS at 30.27% . The latest Q1 2025 results show a 45.17% YoY revenue growth and 23.39% EPS growth . Analysts have a strong buy consensus with an average price target of $944.17 , and some even predict a $1 trillion market cap by 2027 . The user is also interested in Buffett's holdings, so mentioning LLY's dominance in the weight loss market, which is a high-growth sector, might align with Buffett's preference for stable, cash-generating businesses. The partnership with Camurus for long-acting drugs and the pipeline of new products like orforglipron and retatrutide could be key points. These innovations suggest LLY is well-positioned for future growth. However, there's a downgrade from Erste Group to Hold , which might indicate some risks. The high P/E ratio (62x) could be a concern, but the user's interest in long-term investments might overlook short-term volatility. The competition from Novo Nordisk is another factor, but LLY's superior drug efficacy gives them an edge. I should structure the answer to highlight the bullish case first, then mention the risks. Use tables to present financial data clearly. Make sure to include the visualization for the LLY financials as per the user's instructions. Also, since the user likes blue-chip stocks, emphasizing LLY's market leadership and financial stability is crucial. Need to ensure all data points are cited correctly and the answer flows logically from conclusion to detailed analysis. Keep the language professional but engaging, maybe add some emojis to make it lively as per the format requirements. ``` ### **Conclusion** 🌟 Eli Lilly (LLY) presents a compelling long-term investment opportunity driven by its dominance in the weight loss and diabetes markets, a robust pipeline of innovative drugs, and a strong financial foundation. However, the stock faces risks from high valuations, regulatory uncertainties, and competition. Below is a detailed analysis of LLY’s long-term prospects. --- ### **1. Financial Health & Growth Trajectory** LLY has demonstrated exceptional growth over the past three years, with: | Metric | 3-Year CAGR (2022–2025Q1) | |--------------------------|-----------------------------| | **Net Income** | **30.22%** | | **Revenue** | **25.62%** | | **Diluted EPS** | **30.27%** | **Q1 2025 Highlights** : - **Revenue**: $12.73B (45.17% YoY growth) - **Net Income**: $2.76B (23.02% YoY growth) - **Diluted EPS**: $3.06 (23.39% YoY growth) LLY’s **2025–2030 growth projections** suggest continued dominance in the weight loss market, with tirzepatide-based drugs (Zepbound, Mounjaro) driving **$58–$61B in annual revenue** by 2025. --- ### **2. Market Position & Catalysts** #### **Weight Loss Market Dominance** - LLY controls **~35% market share** in GLP-1 receptor agonists . - **Zepbound** (tirzepatide) achieved **$4.93B in 2024 sales** , with **350% YoY growth** in Q1 2025 . - **Mounjaro** (diabetes treatment) generated **$3.84B in 2024 sales** , up **113% YoY** . #### **Pipeline Innovations** - **Oroglipron** (oral GLP-1 pill): Phase 3 success , targeting **FDA approval in 2026** . - **Retatrutide** (triple GIP/GLP-1 agonist): Phase 3 data expected in 2025 , with potential **superior efficacy** over current treatments. - **Camurus Partnership**: Long-acting incretin therapies , enhancing LLY’s competitive edge in chronic disease management. #### **Regulatory & Expansion Catalysts** - **Kisunla** (Alzheimer’s drug) approved in Australia . - **Ovarian Cancer Drug** (LY4170156): 55% response rate in Phase 1 . --- ### **3. Analyst Consensus & Valuation** #### **Price Targets** | Metric | Value | |--------------------------|---------------------------| | **Average Price Target** | **$944.17** (23.5% upside) | | **Bull Case** | **$1,190** | | **Bear Case** | **$675** | #### **Valuation Risks** - **P/E Ratio**: 62x (high relative to peers) . - **Market Cap**: ~$695B , raising concerns about **valuation compression**. --- ### **4. Risks & Competition** #### **Competition** - **Novo Nordisk (NVO)**: Dominates GLP-1 market with **62% share** . - **Generic Threats**: No immediate patent expirations , but **FDA shortages** (e.g., Zepbound) could impact supply . #### **Regulatory Risks** - **FDA Scrutiny**: High-profile trials (e.g., retatrutide) face **data-driven delays** . - **Litigation**: Recent legal battles over drug shortages . --- ### **5. Long-Term Outlook** LLY is well-positioned to capitalize on the **$381B weight loss market** and **$470B GLP-1 drug revenue** by 2030. With a **$1 trillion market cap target** and **26.81% upside potential** , LLY offers a high-reward opportunity for long-term investors. However, caution is advised due to **valuation risks** and **competitive pressures**. --- |code|Ticker|Name|Date|Net Income YoY|Net Income|market_code| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |LLY|LLY.N|Eli Lilly|2024 Q2|68.27359346642469|2.967E9|169| |LLY|LLY.N|Eli Lilly|2024 Q3|1790.418118466899|9.703E8|169| |LLY|LLY.N|Eli Lilly|2024 Q4|101.3975155279503|4.4098E9|169| |LLY|LLY.N|Eli Lilly|2025 Q1|23.02376387712337|2.7593E9|169| |code|Ticker|Name|Date|Total Revenue YoY|Total Revenue|market_code| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |LLY|LLY.N|Eli Lilly|2024 Q2|35.98007723679936|1.13028E10|169| |LLY|LLY.N|Eli Lilly|2024 Q3|20.42932642705241|1.14391E10|169| |LLY|LLY.N|Eli Lilly|2024 Q4|44.68321679816965|1.35328E10|169| |LLY|LLY.N|Eli Lilly|2025 Q1|45.16993613138686|1.27285E10|169| |code|Ticker|Name|Date|Diluted EPS YoY|Diluted EPS|market_code| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |LLY|LLY.N|Eli Lilly|2024 Q2|68.20512820512819|3.28|169| |LLY|LLY.N|Eli Lilly|2024 Q3|1883.3333333333335|1.07|169| |LLY|LLY.N|Eli Lilly|2024 Q4|101.65289256198346|4.88|169| |LLY|LLY.N|Eli Lilly|2025 Q1|23.38709677419355|3.06|169|