What drove HG's massive EPS surprises in early 2024?

Hamilton Insurance Group (HG) experienced a significant earnings per share (EPS) surprise in early 2024, with quarterly earnings of $0.32 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.76 per share. This represents a substantial decline from the earnings of $1.15 per share in the same period of the previous year. The primary factors contributing to this significant EPS surprise include: 1. **Natural Catastrophes**: Hamilton was impacted by natural catastrophes, including Hurricane Milton and Hurricane Helene, which resulted in increased current-year catastrophe losses. These losses, amounting to $49.1 million, significantly contributed to the higher combined ratio and impacted the company's financial results. 2. **Underwriting Income**: The underwriting income dropped to $22.4 million in Q4 2024, from $36.0 million in the same period of 2023. This decline indicates a challenging underwriting environment, which likely led to the lower-than-expected earnings. In summary, the EPS surprise in early 2024 was primarily driven by natural catastrophes and underwriting income. These factors, combined with other elements such as market conditions and investment performance, significantly impacted the company's financial results.