Is WCN's Q1 2025 earnings forecast signaling a recovery?

**Waste Connections' (WCN) Q1 2025 earnings forecast does not necessarily indicate a recovery**, and here's why: 1. **Q4 Earnings Performance**: WCN's fourth-quarter earnings fell short of expectations, with adjusted EPS of $1.16, missing the consensus of $1.21. Revenue was also below estimates, coming in at $2.26 billion compared to the projected $2.25 billion. 2. **Full Year Performance**: For the full year 2024, WCN reported revenue of $8.92 billion, reflecting an 11.2% year-over-year increase. However, the company's adjusted EBITDA reached $2.902 billion, indicating a 32.5% of revenue and a 100 basis point improvement from the previous year. 3. **Q1 2025 Outlook**: WCN's guidance for fiscal year 2025 projects revenue between $9.45 billion and $9.60 billion, aligning with the analyst consensus. The company also anticipates adjusted EBITDA margin expansion, expecting it to reach between 33.0% and 33.3% of revenue. 4. **Institutional Activity**: Institutional investors have shown mixed activity, with Blair William & Co. IL reducing its holdings, while other firms like Manchester Capital Management LLC and Private Trust Co. NA have increased their stakes. 5. **Market Sentiment**: Despite the earnings miss, WCN's stock has outperformed the market, with a 10.7% gain since the beginning of the year compared to the S&P 500's 3.2% gain. This suggests a positive sentiment among investors, which could be a sign of recovery potential. However, the Q1 2025 earnings forecast alone does not signal a recovery. The company's performance in Q4 2024 and the full year 2024 indicates a strong finish to the year, with double-digit growth in revenue and adjusted EBITDA. The positive outlook for 2025, including revenue projections and EBITDA margin expansion, supports the idea of a recovery. Investors should monitor the company's performance closely, especially in the context of market conditions and management's strategic initiatives.