How volatile is AZEK's EPS historically?

AZEK's EPS has shown a certain level of volatility historically, which can be attributed to various factors such as market conditions, company performance, and industry trends. Here's a detailed analysis: 1. **Recent Performance**: The most recent data available shows that AZEK's EPS was $0.12 for the fiscal quarter ending December 31, 2024, which is the most recent data point available. |code|Ticker|Name|Date|Diluted EPS YoY|Diluted EPS|market_code| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |AZEK|AZEK.N|AZEK|2024 Q2|183.33333333333337|0.34|169| |AZEK|AZEK.N|AZEK|2024 Q3|47.82608695652174|0.34|169| |AZEK|AZEK.N|AZEK|2025 Q1|-29.41176470588236|0.12|169| 2. **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility (IV) for AZEK's earnings has been high, with IV30 values of 46.9 and 32.2 reported prior to and after the last earnings release, respectively. This indicates that the market was expecting significant price movements following the earnings report. 3. **Earnings Expectations**: The market expects AZEK to deliver a year-over-year decline in earnings on lower revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended September 2024. This suggests that the company's EPS may be subject to downward pressure in the near term. 4. **Historical Growth Rate**: While the historical EPS growth rate for AZEK is 7%, the company's EPS is expected to grow 20.9% this year, which is a notable increase. This discrepancy between historical growth and expected growth may contribute to volatility as the market adjusts to these new expectations. 5. **Market Sentiment**: The merger with James Hardie is expected to close in the second half of 2025 and represents a significant strategic move for AZEK. The market's reaction to this news and the eventual merger outcome could influence EPS volatility. In conclusion, AZEK's EPS has shown historical volatility, and several factors contribute to this volatility, including high implied volatility, earnings expectations, and market sentiment. The company's recent merger with James Hardie and the expected growth rate could also impact its future EPS volatility.