Is TMUS's Q1 2025 forecast achievable?

**T-Mobile US's Q1 2025 forecast is challenging but achievable**, considering the company's recent performance and strategic initiatives. Here's a detailed analysis: 1. **Earnings Estimate Reduction**: Zacks Research has decreased its Q1 2025 earnings estimate for T-Mobile US, forecasting $2.43 per share, down from $2.56. This reduction suggests that while earnings may be slightly lower than expected, they are still profitable. 2. **Subscriber Growth Expectations**: RBC Capital Markets has trimmed its subscriber growth estimates for T-Mobile, projecting 496,000 net postpaid phone additions in Q1 2025, down from 516,000. This indicates a slight slowdown in subscriber growth but does not imply a significant decline in service revenue, as the company is expected to add 510,400 postpaid subscribers, which is close to RBC's original estimate. 3. **Service Revenue Growth**: T-Mobile anticipates a 5.1% annual increase in wireless service revenue for Q1 2025, driven by postpaid subscriber gains. This growth is underpinned by the company's record-breaking performance in 2024, with significant customer additions and industry-leading service revenue growth. 4. **Strategic Initiatives**: T-Mobile's strategic focus on expanding into smaller markets, rural areas, and the business sector, along with its advancements in fixed wireless and fiber strategies, are expected to support continued growth. The company's recent acquisitions, such as Vistar Media and Blis, are also likely to contribute to increased advertising revenue. 5. **Market Position and Competition**: Despite increased competition, T-Mobile's differentiated network capabilities, best-in-class customer results, and strong brand value position it well for sustained growth. The company's premium 5G plans have seen strong demand, which is expected to drive subscriber growth in 2025. In conclusion, while T-Mobile US faces challenges, including increased competition and reduced subscriber growth estimates, its historical performance, strategic initiatives, and market positioning suggest that achieving its Q1 2025 forecast is plausible. The company's focus on expanding its customer base, improving network capabilities, and leveraging strategic acquisitions positions it well for continued growth.