Why did TJX outperform forecasts in 2025?

The TJX Companies (TJX) outperformed forecasts in 2025 due to several key factors: 1. **Strong Earnings Performance**: TJX reported earnings per share (EPS) of $1.23 for Q4 2025, which surpassed analyst expectations of $1.16. This was a 10% increase year-over-year, reflecting robust profitability. 2. **Revenue Exceeding Expectations**: The company's revenue for Q4 2025 was reported at $16.35 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of $16.19 billion. This indicates a strong revenue base that supports operational efficiency and market presence. 3. **Comparable Store Sales Growth**: TJX experienced a 5% increase in consolidated comparable store sales, which was driven by higher customer transactions across all divisions. This suggests a strong in-store performance, which is a positive indicator for future earnings potential. 4. **Market Position and Growth Potential**: TJX's off-price model and treasure-hunt shopping experience continue to resonate with consumers, providing a competitive edge in the retail landscape. The company's strategic expansion and confident outlook reflect its ability to navigate market challenges effectively. 5. **Financial Strength and Shareholder Returns**: TJX's financial strength, as indicated by a perfect Piotroski Score of 9, demonstrates its ability to manage costs and maintain financial health. The company also returned $4.1 billion to shareholders in FY25 through share repurchases and dividends, signaling a commitment to shareholder value. In summary, TJX's outperformance can be attributed to its strong earnings and revenue results, coupled with robust store performance and strategic market positioning. These factors collectively contribute to the company's ability to exceed market expectations.