How did TGB's Q3 earnings surprise investors?

Taseko Mines Ltd (TGB) reported its Q4 2024 earnings on February 20, 2025, which revealed a mixed performance that surprised investors. Here are the key details: 1. **Revenue Increase Despite Production Decline**: TGB's quarterly production of copper fell by 16% year-on-year, dropping to 28.5 million pounds due to lower head grades and copper recovery. However, revenues surged by 9% to CAD$167.8 million, primarily driven by a higher copper price of $4.13 per pound for the quarter. This contrast between production decline and revenue increase might have caught investors' attention. 2. **Copper Price Impact**: The company benefited from a 14% rise in copper prices year-to-date, which contributed significantly to its revenue growth. Copper prices have continued to appreciate since the end of Q4, reaching $4.51 per pound. This positive trend could have influenced investor perceptions, especially considering the company's optimistic outlook for the Florence copper project. 3. **Operational Challenges**: TGB faced operational hurdles, including milling disruptions, major maintenance, and a labor strike, which affected production efficiency. These challenges, combined with lower mill operating hours, led to a loss of approximately 15 million pounds of copper production. Investors might have been surprised by the resilience of the company's financial results despite these operational setbacks. 4. **Financial Highlights**: TGB's Q4 performance showed strong adjusted EBITDA of $224 million and cash flow from operations of $233 million, indicating robust liquidity and financial stability. The company ended 2024 with over $330 million of available liquidity, which could have been a positive surprise for investors concerned about financial health. In conclusion, TGB's Q4 earnings report likely surprised investors with a combination of revenue growth driven by copper price increases and operational challenges that managed to maintain profitability. The company's strategic advancements, particularly at the Florence project, and favorable market conditions further supported these outcomes, despite the expected weakest quarter in 2025 due to pit pushback impacts.