What is the best strategy in Indian commodity like MCX silver , doing 1-3 days trading with 2-: % profit or holding it for 10 days to see 5% profit or holding for 1-2 months see 10% profit. Which is has more probability to achieve. Suggest the best to see good return 2-: months

**Quick answer 🏁** Based on the last 4-years of price action in the iShares Silver Trust (SLV)—a close proxy for MCX silver—the highest hit-rate for your desired reward targets is the **1-3-day “scalp” aiming for ≈ +2 %**, which succeeded roughly **25 % of the time**. Ten-day swings to +5 % and 2-month positional trades to +10 % both come in lower, at ~22 % and ~23 % respectively. --- ### How we measured the odds | Holding window | Profit target | Win probability* | |----------------|---------------|------------------| | 1–3 trading days | +2 % | **25.1 %** | | 10 trading days | +5 % | 21.7 % | | 60 trading days (≈2 months) | +10 % | 23.5 % | \*Calculated from 1 189 daily observations of SLV closing prices between Jan-2021 and Sep-2025 . ```reference [{"type":"table-json","data":{"application/vnd.aime.table.v2+json":{"columns":[{"index_name":"date","key":"date","type":"DATE"},{"index_name":"Closing Price","key":"Closing Price","type":"STR"},{"index_name":"Close","key":"Close","type":"DOUBLE"},{"index_name":"return_3d","key":"return_3d","type":"DOUBLE"},{"index_name":"return_10d","key":"return_10d","type":"DOUBLE"},{"index_name":"return_60d","key":"return_60d","type":"DOUBLE"}],"datas":[{"date":"2021-01-04 00:00:00","Closing Price":"25.35","Close":"25.35","return_3d":"-0.0035502958579881616","return_10d":"-0.07771203155818551","return_60d":"-0.10453648915187386"},{"date":"2021-01-05 00:00:00","Closing Price":"25.67","Close":"25.67","return_3d":"-0.0841449162446436","return_10d":"-0.06466692637319826","return_60d":"-0.09816906895208422"},{"date":"2021-01-06 00:00:00","Closing Price":"25.34","Close":"25.34","return_3d":"-0.0840568271507498","return_10d":"-0.046961325966850875","return_60d":"-0.08879242304656665"},{"date":"2021-01-07 00:00:00","Closing Price":"25.26","Close":"25.26","return_3d":"-0.06096595407759309","return_10d":"-0.06334125098970711","return_60d":"-0.07600950118764849"},{"date":"2021-01-08 00:00:00","Closing Price":"23.51","Close":"23.51","return_3d":"-0.002977456401531242","return_10d":"0.0017014036580178526","return_60d":"-0.007656316461080559"}]}}}] ``` --- ### What this means for you 1. **Short scalps (1-3 days, +2 %)** • Highest probability of success, but still only one in four trades. • Requires strict stop-loss (~–1 %) and rapid execution—perfect for active, screen-watching traders. • Because trades are frequent, compounding small gains can outpace a lower-frequency 10 % target over months, provided costs/slippage are controlled. 2. **10-day swing trades (+5 %)** • Slightly lower probability, but still fits your stated 10-day horizon. • Works best when a clear technical catalyst (breakout, RSI divergence) aligns with macro drivers (USD weakness, rate-cut expectations). 3. **2-month positional trades (+10 %)** • Odds marginally better than the 10-day scenario, yet you tie up capital much longer and face deeper draw-downs. • Suitable only if you can tolerate 8-12 % interim volatility and want to capture seasonal tailwinds (e.g., Indian festival demand). --- ### Practical strategy suggestions • **For your 5-7 % profit goal in ~10 days** – Combine daily ATR(14) for setting stop and target distances. – Enter on a pull-back to the 20-day EMA within an up-trend confirmed by rising OBV. – Risk/Reward: 1:1.5 (≈3 % stop, 5 % target). – Trade only when the USDINR weakens ≥0.5 % intraday—silver and INR often move inversely. • **If you pivot to 1-3-day scalps** – Focus on breakout of previous day’s high with volume >25 % of 20-day average during the first hour. – Tight stop (–0.7 %) just below breakout level; exit end of day if target unmet to avoid overnight MCX margin jumps. • **Want the 2-month 10 % play?** – Accumulate on 50-day EMA pull-backs; hedge with a small short USDINR futures position. – Be mentally prepared for multiple 5 % draw-downs before payoff. --- ### Bottom line 🎯 Given your short-term style and the numbers above, **sticking with high-probability 1-3-day scalps—augmented by selective 10-day swings—offers the best balance between hit-rate and capital efficiency.** Position trades can work, but only if you are comfortable parking money for months and riding out bigger swings. --- I’d love to fine-tune these tactics to your exact **risk tolerance** (how much draw-down feels “too much” for you?) and **position sizing rules**. What level of % loss on a single trade makes you uncomfortable? 🤔