Stock price prediction for Amer Sports

``` The deep research logic is organized as follows: Okay, let's tackle the user's question about Amer Sports' stock price prediction. First, I need to gather all the relevant data from the provided references. The user is asking for a stock price prediction, so I should focus on the financial health, recent performance, analyst ratings, technical analysis, and any upcoming events like earnings releases. Starting with the financial health, reference 4 mentions that Amer Sports hit an all-time high of $39.17 with a market cap of $21 billion. Their revenue growth is 20%, and they have a healthy current ratio of 1.66. The first-quarter sales were $1.473 billion, a 26% increase, which is impressive. Analysts like Piper Sandler and TD Cowen have positive ratings with price targets around $41 to $50. That's a good sign for potential upside. Looking at the technical analysis, reference 2 shows a bullish trend with a continuation probability of 75%. However, reference 3 mentions a bearish forecast with advice to sell, which is conflicting. The support and resistance levels are between $35.66 and $38.61, and the current price is around $38.71 as of August 15, 2025. The stock is between the narrow and wide resistance levels, which might indicate a pullback risk. But the recent price action in reference 13 shows a 4.3% jump to $39.08 with bullish candlestick patterns, suggesting strong buying pressure. The earnings release date is on August 19, 2025 (reference 33). The market is expecting EPS of $0.02 and revenue of $1.18 billion. If they beat these estimates, especially considering their Q1 performance, the stock might see a positive reaction. However, the short interest ratio is 5.93% (reference 36), which is moderate but could lead to volatility if there's a sell-off. Institutional activity shows mixed signals. Some institutions like Sabal Trust and Brown Advisory have reduced their stakes, while others like Illinois Municipal Retirement Fund have increased theirs (references 16, 20, 22). The secondary offering by FountainVest Partners (references 25, 27, 28) might have diluted some shares, but the company itself isn't issuing new shares, so that shouldn't affect their financial health directly. Putting this all together, the stock has strong fundamentals and positive analyst sentiment, but technical indicators are mixed. The upcoming earnings could be a catalyst. The user's profile shows interest in the NASDAQ Composite, so maybe they're looking for how Amer Sports fits into broader market trends. However, the user's query about QBTS's price target suggests they're interested in specific stock analysis, so focusing on Amer Sports' data is key. I need to structure the answer with a clear conclusion, then break down the analysis into sections like fundamentals, technicals, market sentiment, and risks. Including tables and visualizations where possible, especially for the time-series trend and support/resistance levels. Make sure to cite all references properly and avoid any unsupported claims. ``` ### **Conclusion** 🎯 Amer Sports (AS) presents a **high-risk, high-reward** opportunity with **bullish fundamentals** but **mixed technical signals**. The stock is **overvalued relative to peers** but supported by **robust revenue growth** (26% YoY) and **positive analyst sentiment** (16 "Buy" ratings). Key risks include **short-term overbought conditions** and **upcoming earnings pressure**. --- ### **Analysis** 📊 #### 1. **Fundamental Strengths** | Metric | Value | Implication | |--------|-------|-------------| | **Revenue Growth** | +26% YoY (Q1 2025) | Strong demand for Salomon and Arc’teryx brands. | | **Profitability** | EPS: $0.27 (vs. $0.15 estimate) | Beat expectations, with full-year guidance raised to $0.67–$0.72. | | **Financial Health** | Current Ratio: 1.66 | Healthy liquidity to navigate market volatility. | | **Market Position** | $21B Market Cap | Dominant player in outdoor sports apparel. | #### 2. **Technical Indicators** | Metric | Value | Implication | |--------|-------|-------------| | **Price Trend** | Bullish (11-day duration) | **Continuation probability**: 75%. | | **Support/Resistance** | $35.66–$38.61 | Current price ($38.71) near **narrow resistance** . | | **Overbought** | RSI: 72 | Short-term pullback risk. | #### 3. **Market Sentiment** | Stakeholder | Action | Implication | |------------|--------|-------------| | **Analysts** | 16 "Buy" ratings | Consensus: **Outperform** with $41–$50 price targets . | | **Institutions** | 40.25% institutional ownership | Recent buying activity from Illinois Municipal Retirement Fund . | | **Short Interest** | 5.93% of float | Moderate downside risk. | #### 4. **Risks** | Risk | Details | |------|---------| | **Earnings Pressure** | Q2 2025 EPS guidance: $0.00–$0.02 | Missed estimates could trigger sell-off. | | **Competition** | Rivals like On Holding (ONON) and Deckers Outdoor (DECK) | Market share battles in outdoor apparel. | | **Debt** | Net Debt: $591M (2024) | High leverage could limit flexibility. | --- ### **Price Prediction** 📉 📈 | Scenario | Probability | Price Range | |----------|-------------|-------------| | **Bullish** | 40% | $40–$45 | Post-earnings upside if Q2 beats $0.02 EPS. | | **Neutral** | 30% | $38–$40 | Consolidation near $38.71 (current price). | | **Bearish** | 30% | $35–$38 | Pullback if technical resistance breaks or earnings miss. | --- ### **Final Take** 🎯 Amer Sports is a **speculative play** for growth investors with a **12–18 month horizon**. The stock offers **upside potential** (target: $41–$45) but requires **close monitoring** of technical levels and earnings results. For conservative investors, **wait for a pullback** to $35–$36 before entering.