Will SPGI's Q1 2025 earnings beat forecasts like past quarters?

**S&P Global's (SPGI) likelihood of beating Q1 2025 earnings forecasts appears low** based on several factors: 1. **Recent Outlook Revisions**: S&P Global Ratings has revised its outlook on SIG PLC (a subsidiary of S&P Global) to negative from stable due to anticipated free operating cash flow (FOCF) deficit amid challenging market conditions. This revision suggests potential challenges ahead for the company's financial performance. 2. **Expected FOCF Deficit**: The negative outlook is due to anticipated FOCF deficit despite a predicted modest recovery in EBITDA. This indicates that the company may struggle to generate sufficient positive cash flow to cover its operating expenses. 3. **Market Conditions**: The company operates in sectors such as building materials, automotive, and industrial markets, which are experiencing challenging conditions. For example, the automotive and industrial end-markets are expected to result in lower EBITDA margins due to weak demand and inventory corrections. These factors are likely to impact S&P Global's financial performance in Q1 2025. 4. **Historical Performance**: The company's historical net income has shown fluctuations, with significant declines in net income in certain quarters. While the company has a history of returning value to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, the negative outlook and anticipated FOCF deficit suggest that the company may not have the financial flexibility to exceed earnings forecasts in the upcoming quarter. In conclusion, while S&P Global has a history of exceeding earnings forecasts, the current negative outlook, anticipated FOCF deficit, challenging market conditions, and historical performance suggest that the company's Q1 2025 earnings may not beat forecasts like past quarters.