SP500 movement since Trump became president?

**Bottom line:** Since Donald Trump took office on 20 Jan 2017, the S&P 500 (using the SPDR S&P 500 ETF, *SPY*, as a proxy) has climbed from $226.74 to $634.21—a gain of roughly **+180 %** 🚀. During Trump’s four-year term the index advanced about **+69 %**, and it has added a further **+65 %** so far under President Biden. --- ### 1. Key performance figures | Period | Price at start | Price at end | Absolute return | Annualised return* | |---|---|---|---|---| | Trump presidency (20 Jan 2017 → 20 Jan 2021) | $226.74 | $383.89 | +69.2 % | ≈ 14 % | | Biden period to date (20 Jan 2021 → 23 Jul 2025) | $383.89 | $634.21 | +65.3 % | ≈ 11.8 % | | Entire span (20 Jan 2017 → 23 Jul 2025) | $226.74 | $634.21 | +179.7 % | ≈ 12.9 % | \*Annualised returns use compound annual growth rate (CAGR). Source: Ainvest FinQuery close prices for *SPY* --- ### 2. What drove the moves? 📈 1. **2017-2019: Tax-cut euphoria & earnings boom** • The 2017 Tax Cuts & Jobs Act slashed the U.S. corporate rate from 35 % to 21 %, providing an immediate EPS tail-wind and propelling risk appetite. • S&P 500 earnings grew ~23 % YoY in 2018, the strongest post-GFC surge, keeping valuations in check despite rising prices. 2. **2018: Vol spike & trade-war jitters** • February’s short-volatility crash (“Volmageddon”) and the Q4 Fed tightening scare produced two swift ~10 % corrections, but both were bought aggressively. 3. **2020: COVID crash & policy bazooka** • The index plunged ~34 % in five weeks (Feb-Mar 2020) as the pandemic hit. • Massive fiscal stimulus (CARES Act) and the Fed’s zero-rate/QE programs triggered the quickest bear-market recovery on record; SPX recouped its losses by August. 4. **2021-2023: Re-opening rally to tightening hang-over** • Vaccine roll-out and re-opening trades lifted the index to new highs in late-2021. • 2022’s inflation spike forced the Fed into the fastest hiking cycle since the 1980s, sending the S&P 500 down ~-19 % that year. • Tech-led AI enthusiasm (NVIDIA, MSFT, et al.) powered a rebound through 2023-24. 5. **2024-present: Soft-landing optimism** • Disinflation without a recession kept earnings resilient; markets began pricing modest Fed cuts, pushing the index to fresh highs in 2025. --- ### 3. Contextual takeaways 🤔 • **Policy matters, but macro dominates:** The bulk of the rally stems from earnings growth and Fed liquidity rather than any single administration’s policies. • **Volatility is the entry price:** Even with a near-tripling in price, investors endured two >-10 % corrections and one historic bear market in 2020. • **Long-term discipline wins:** A buy-and-hold approach from Jan 2017 delivered a CAGR just under 13 %, comfortably ahead of the index’s long-run average (~10 %). --- ### 4. Looking ahead With valuations back near pre-COVID peaks and the Fed balancing rate cuts against sticky services inflation, expect **higher day-to-day volatility** but **lower recession odds** than a year ago. Maintaining a diversified core allocation—while tactically managing exposure around earnings season and policy events—remains prudent. Let me know if you’d like a deeper dive into sector attribution or drawdown statistics, and I’d be happy to pull the numbers! 📊