Should I keep my 45 shares of ORC
10/29/2024 09:49am
**Consider reducing your position in ORC**. Here's why:
1. **Dividend Sustainability Concerns**: While the dividend yield of ORC is attractive at 18.71%, the sustainability of such a high yield is questionable due to the company's history of dividend cuts and the potential impact of market conditions on its earnings. The company's payout ratio is negative at -25.46%, which indicates that it is paying out more than it is earning, which is not a sustainable dividend payout strategy.
2. **Market Conditions Impact**: Wider mortgage spreads and funding pressures have led to a challenging environment for mortgage investments, which has impacted ORC's portfolio yield and net interest margin. These market conditions can affect the company's ability to sustain its high dividend payouts.
3. **Strategic Positioning and Risks**: ORC has strategically positioned its portfolio with a bias towards higher coupon mortgages, which are expected to perform well in the current market environment. However, the company's leverage ratio has expanded slightly, which could indicate increased risk exposure. The company's conservative risk appetite and hedging strategies are positive signs, but they do not entirely eliminate the risks associated with the current market environment.
4. **Economic Uncertainty**: The impact of economic uncertainty, particularly around the upcoming election and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, poses challenges for ORC's future performance. The company's economic return of 2.1% for the quarter suggests a modest recovery, but it does not guarantee the sustainability of its high dividend yield.
While ORC's high dividend yield is attractive, the risks associated with the sustainability of the dividend and the challenging market conditions suggest that you may want to consider reducing your position in the stock. If you do decide to hold onto your shares, closely monitor the company's performance and market conditions, and be prepared to adjust your strategy as needed.