Short interest on RUBI and days to cover. My DCA is 1.23$ and looking to swing into the next few session and TP at 1.93$ thoughts?

RUBI’s “squeeze fuel” is actually tiny: **short interest is only ~1.4% of float and days‑to‑cover is basically zero**, so your 1.23 → 1.93 swing is a **pure momentum/lotto trade**, not a classic short‑squeeze setup. ⚠️ --- ## 1. Short interest & days to cover Latest Nasdaq/Fintel data for RUBI shows: - **Short interest:** **61,704 shares** - **Short interest as % of float:** **1.43%** - **Short interest ratio (days to cover):** **0.04 days** - **Off‑exchange short volume (3/2):** 2,189,721 shares, **56.11%** of FINRA volume (very active intraday shorting) - **Borrow fee:** insanely high – **~200–400% annualized** in recent days **Interpretation:** - **Short interest on float is low (1.4%)** → there isn’t a big base of trapped shorts; **no “GME‑style” structural squeeze**. - **Days to cover at 0.04** → at recent volume, shorts could cover in minutes; again, very little squeeze pressure. - **But** the **borrow is very expensive** and **short volume intraday is heavy** → this is more like a **day‑trader battlefield**: shorts and longs scalping the pump, not institutions building big short books. So: **this is a high-fee, low-float trading vehicle**, not a crowded short. --- ## 2. What the tape looks like vs your target From early January to now, RUBI has **collapsed from ~7.7 to ~1.13** on the close – an ~85% drawdown in two months. Recent closes and volume: - **2/19–2/27:** cascading from **2.24 → 0.84**, volume spiking into the millions. - **3/2:** closes at **1.01** on ~17.7M shares. - **3/3 (last close):** **1.13** on ~48.9M shares. So you’re currently: - **Price now:** 1.13 - **Your DCA:** 1.23 → you’re down ~**8%**. - **Your TP:** 1.93 - From **current price:** +~**71%** - From **your DCA:** +~**57%** Recent volatility (close‑to‑close, last 20 trading days): - **Average absolute daily move:** ~**10.8%** - **Largest up day (close‑to‑close):** ~**+20%** - **Largest down day:** ~**‑35%** To get from **1.13 → 1.93** in just **“the next few sessions”**, you need **~+71% in a handful of days**. On closing data, that’s **way above** the typical daily range; you’d need **multiple outlier days in a row** or a fresh, big catalyst/pump. Here’s the recent price trend (RUBI daily close, last ~20 sessions): ```reference [{"id":11,"type":"plotly-json"}] ``` It’s basically: - **Sharp downtrend**, then - **Attempted bounce with heavy volume**, but - Still **well below** early‑Feb levels where the last big spike topped out. --- ## 3. What the quant and flows say From the quantitative model for RUBI: - **Overall rating:** **Underperform** - **Technical evaluation:** **“underperform”**, with repeated **long upper/lower shadows** on recent candles. Historically, those patterns for this stock have: - **Win rates ~21–25%** - **Average forward returns ~‑10%** over the next month → suggests **distribution and whipsaw**, not clean breakouts. - **Fund flows (past 5 days):** - Extra‑large & large orders show patterns that, in backtests, correspond to **negative average 5‑day returns** with **very low win rates (~17–22%)**. - Translation: **when the whale flow looks like this, the forward edge has historically been bearish**, not bullish. This doesn’t mean it *can’t* rip – but **the base‑rate of this setup is more crashes than moonshots.** --- ## 4. Catalyst backdrop (why it’s moving at all) Key near‑term catalyst: Rubico just published a **NAV press release** saying: - Estimated **NAV = $94.2M** as of 12/31/25 - **$22.88 NAV per common share**, or $15.08 on a fully diluted basis - Claiming the stock trades at a **~94% discount to NAV** This kind of headline **feeds the “deep value / 20x to NAV” narrative** and helps stoke the recent volume spike. But: - From the broader thesis: this is a **Greek micro‑cap tanker spin‑off** with a **history of reverse splits, sale‑leasebacks, and questionable capital moves** (e.g., mega‑yacht LOI). - It behaves more like a **capital‑engineering “casino”** than a compounding business. - NAV promos in this corner of the market are often **preludes to more dilution or structured financings**, not shareholder bonanzas. So, **yes**, you can get **violent upside days** on hype around “NAV vs share price,” but the **structural drift is usually down** over time. --- ## 5. Is 1.93 a realistic swing TP in a few sessions? ### My read, given your plan (DCA 1.23 → TP 1.93): **Pros for upside:** - Micro‑cap with **tiny float** and **massive borrow fee** → very squeezable *intraday* if shorts get crowded. - Recent **volume explosion** means it’s firmly on traders’ radars. - “94% discount to NAV” narrative gives **headline fuel** for another round of hype. **Cons / headwinds:** - **Short interest on float is only ~1.4%, days‑to‑cover 0.04** → there is **no big structural short overhang** to force‑cover into your target. - Close‑to‑close data shows **+20% is about the biggest up day recently**; your +70% target in “a few sessions” is **near the tail of what we’ve actually seen** in this window. - Quant + fund‑flows both flag this setup as **historically bearish** over the next few days/weeks (low win rates, negative average forward returns). - The chart is **still in a strong downtrend**, with lots of overhead supply from everyone who bought between **~2–7** in the last two months. ### I’d frame it like this 🎲 - **1.93 as a “stretch” target within a few sessions:** - **Low probability**, more like **lottery** outcome. - **More realistic near‑term “base case” zone:** - If the bounce continues, **1.40–1.60** is a more reasonable band to expect before sellers re‑appear. - **Downside risk:** - If the current bounce fails, retesting the **0.80–0.85** area (recent low) is very plausible; a **dilution headline** could push it lower. Given your **high risk tolerance**, the trade can make sense **only if**: 1. **Position size is small** enough that a **50–70% hit** on this line doesn’t matter to your overall FI / Thailand plan. 2. You have a **clear exit on the downside** (e.g., **hard stop somewhere under 0.80–0.85** where you’re out, no questions asked). 3. You’re **willing to take partial profits earlier** (for example: - Trim some around **1.40–1.50** if it gets there, - Keep a runner for **1.93** only if it turns into a proper mania candle). --- ### Practical suggestion (if you stick with it) - **Keep RUBI in your “lotto / degen bucket”**, not core capital. - Treat **1.93 as a *best‑case***, not your only exit. - Consider **scaling out**: - First trim if you see **+25–40%** from your DCA (around 1.55–1.70), - Move stop to near break‑even after that, - Let a small remainder ride for 1.93 only if volume + tape go crazy in your favor. --- **Question for you:** Roughly **what % of your total trading stack is in RUBI right now**, and are you willing to hard‑cap your downside (e.g., cut without hesitation if it flushes back under the 0.80–0.85 zone)? That will determine how aggressive we can be with this swing.