What do SHOP's past earnings say about 2025?

Shopify's past earnings performance and the current estimates for 2025 suggest a company that is expected to continue growing, albeit at a potentially slower pace than recent years. 1. **Q4 2024 Performance**: Shopify's Q4 2024 earnings report showed strong revenue growth, with a 31% year-over-year increase to $2.8 billion. Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) also grew by 23% to $75.1 billion. These figures indicate a robust business performance that could translate into continued growth in 2025. 2. **2025 Estimates**: The consensus for Q1 2025 estimates an EPS of $0.26, reflecting a 30% increase from the same quarter last year. Revenue for Q1 2025 is projected at $2.33 billion, suggesting a 25.28% rise from the previous year's same quarter. For the full year, earnings are projected at $1.49 per share, indicating a 14.62% change, and revenue at $10.86 billion, showing a 22.29% increase. 3. **Market Trends and Challenges**: While Shopify has shown strong growth, there are factors that could impact its performance in 2025. Rising interest rates, slowing e-commerce growth, and broader tech sector sell-offs have affected the industry, and these trends could continue. Additionally, as noted by Daniel Grizelj, the macroeconomic environment is becoming less supportive, with potential issues like tariffs affecting consumer spending and, consequently, Shopify's performance. 4. **Strategic Moves and Financial Health**: Shopify's strategic decision to move its stock exchange listing from the NYSE to Nasdaq could boost its appeal to technology-focused investors, potentially enhancing its market performance. The company's financial health, with a Piotroski F-Score of 7 and a robust Altman Z-Score of 33.57, indicates a healthy financial situation. However, a high Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio of 64.98 suggests the stock is trading at a premium relative to its earnings, which could be a concern for investors. In conclusion, while Shopify's past earnings and current estimates suggest a positive outlook for 2025, investors should be aware of potential challenges and market conditions that could impact performance. The company's strategic moves and strong financial position are likely to support continued growth, but careful monitoring of market trends and macroeconomic factors will be essential.