How did SBUX's earnings surprise trend from 2024 to 2025?

Starbucks' earnings surprise trend from 2024 to 2025 showed a decline in the fourth quarter of 2024, followed by a recovery in the first quarter of 2025. 1. **2024 Q4 Earnings Surprise**: Starbucks' earnings per share (EPS) fell by $0.23, missing the expected EPS. This negative surprise indicates a weak performance in the fourth quarter of 2024. |code|Ticker|Name|Date|Estimate EPS YoY|Estimate Revenue YoY|market_code| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |SBUX|SBUX.O|Starbucks|20240331|22.077922077922068|9.681093394077449|185| |SBUX|SBUX.O|Starbucks|20240630|21.53846153846154|8.69047619047619|185| |SBUX|SBUX.O|Starbucks|20240930|-2.105263157894727|-0.44128726724787426|185| |SBUX|SBUX.O|Starbucks|20241231|0|-0.10660980810234541|185| 2. **2025 Q1 Earnings Performance**: In contrast, the first quarter of 2025 saw Starbucks exceed earnings expectations, with a reported EPS of $0.69, surpassing the analyst estimate of $0.66. This positive surprise reflects a strong recovery in the first quarter of 2025. 3. **Interim Period Dynamics**: It's important to note that the company's stock experienced a significant layoff announcement in February 2025, with plans to cut 1,100 jobs. Despite this strategic restructuring, the company's financial performance in the immediate aftermath showed resilience, with revenue and profit figures beating expectations. The fluctuating earnings surprises over the two-year period reflect Starbucks' efforts to adapt to market challenges, including the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on consumer spending and the need for operational efficiency measures. The company's recovery in the first quarter of 2025 suggests that these adaptations are beginning to yield positive results.