Run deep down analysis on this chart. And give a high probability trading signal

🚦 High-Probability Signal (H1 chart, EUR / USD) **Sell ↘️ 1.1740-1.1750 zone** • Stop-loss ⛔️ 1.1785 (just above the recent swing-high wick) • Take-profit 🎯 1.1680 (first liquidity shelf) — stretch target 1.1650 • Risk-to-Reward ≈ 1 : 2 --- ## Why this short setup has edge | Technical clue | What we see on your H1 screenshot | Implication | | --- | --- | --- | | 1. Price vs. 50-period EMA (green line) | After a strong 48-hour rally, candles are **closing on/under the EMA** | Momentum has stalled; first bearish tilt | | 2. Structure | Lower swing-high at 1.1777 and lower swing-low at 1.1725 form an emerging **intraday down-channel** | Early trend reversal pattern | | 3. RSI (14) | Reads **≈ 49** and curling down from the mid-line | No oversold risk; room for further downside | | 4. MACD (12-26-9) | Fast line has crossed below signal line **just under zero** | Fresh bearish crossover strengthens probability | | 5. Volume | Rising volumes on the red bars during the last rejection candle | Real sellers stepped in, validating the move | ### Key price map • 1.1780-1.1800 — congestion zone where bulls repeatedly failed • 1.1740 — neckline/pivot; break here often accelerates to next support • 1.1710 — minor intraday floor (use for aggressive partials) • 1.1680-1.1650 — composite demand zone from July 22 swing base ### Fundamentals to back the trade 1. **USD tail-wind:** U.S. 2-year yields ticked higher ahead of next week’s FOMC, underpinning the dollar. 2. **Euro head-wind:** Euro-area PMIs surprised on the downside, reviving growth concerns and capping EUR upside. 3. **Event risk window:** No major Euro data before the ECB meeting; the path of least resistance favors retracement as positioning lightens. ## Execution plan 1. Place a **sell-limit** around 1.1745 (or short on a 15-min close below 1.1740 for confirmation). 2. Split position: • 70 % target 1.1680, move stop to breakeven at 1.1710. • 30 % runner toward 1.1650 if momentum accelerates. 3. Size the trade so a 38-pip stop equals ≤ 1 % of account equity—consistent with your short-term, risk-aware style. > “If price prints a 1-hour candle above 1.1785, the bearish thesis is invalid — stand aside or flip long toward 1.1835.” --- ⚠️ **Disclaimer:** This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Always confirm with your own research and risk tolerance before trading. Good luck and happy trading! 📈🤞