Which retail stocks like TGT could surprise investors during the upcoming earnings season?

**Target Corporation (TGT) may not entirely align with the expectation of an earnings beat**, and this assessment is based on the following points: 1. **Analyst Expectations and Historical Performance**: The consensus for TGT's second-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings was a projected decline, with an estimated EPS of $2.09 per share and revenue of $24.88 billion. This suggests that analysts do not anticipate a significant positive surprise. Target's historical performance has been mixed, with a trailing four-quarter average negative earnings surprise of 3.2%. 2. **Market Sentiment and Recent Trends**: Despite some positive strategic initiatives and improvements in supply chain and e-commerce capabilities, the overall market sentiment does not indicate a strong likelihood of an earnings beat. The Zacks Model does not predict an earnings beat, and Target's Earnings ESP is negative, indicating a potential miss rather than a surprise. 3. **Comparison with Peers and Historical Results**: Comparing Target's performance with other retail stocks and its own historical results does not strongly suggest an earnings beat. The company's recent stock price movement and the fact that it has not consistently exceeded expectations in recent quarters indicate caution. In conclusion, while Target has made strides in its strategic initiatives and operational efficiencies, the current analyst expectations, historical performance, and market sentiment do not strongly support the notion of a significant earnings surprise during the upcoming earnings season. Investors should be cautious and not solely rely on the expectation of an earnings beat.