How reliable are UPS's quarterly earnings forecasts?

**United Parcel Service (UPS) has demonstrated a generally reliable track record with its quarterly earnings forecasts**, as evidenced by the following points: 1. **Consistent Performance**: UPS has surpassed EPS estimates three times over the last four quarters, indicating a reliable performance in meeting financial expectations. 2. **Earnings Surprises**: The company has experienced earnings surprises, with a recent report showing a 9.13% earnings surprise, which is a positive indicator of its financial performance. 3. **Revenue Accuracy**: While UPS has not consistently beaten revenue estimates, the company's revenue forecasts are improving, with recent estimates showing a more accurate representation of actual revenues. 4. **Analyst Confidence**: Analysts have shown confidence in UPS's performance, with revisions to earnings estimates reflecting this confidence. For instance, the consensus EPS estimate for the latest quarter has seen upward revisions, indicating a positive outlook. 5. **Historical Trends**: Empirical research suggests a strong correlation between earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock price movements. This implies that the collective reassessment of estimates by analysts could signal a positive trend for UPS's stock performance. In conclusion, while there may be minor deviations from expectations, UPS's consistent performance, earnings surprises, and analyst confidence suggest that its quarterly earnings forecasts are reliable. Investors should continue to monitor the company's performance and earnings estimates to capitalize on potential investment opportunities.