How reliable are UNH's earnings forecasts historically?

UnitedHealth Group (UNH) has demonstrated a generally reliable earnings forecast historically, with some nuances: 1. **Consistent Growth Trend**: UNH has shown a consistent trend of earnings growth, with a year-over-year increase of 1.92% in net income and a 6.76% increase in total revenue in the most recent quarter. This indicates a strong financial performance and suggests that the company's earnings forecasts are likely to be accurate. |code|Ticker|Name|Date|Net Income YoY|Total Revenue YoY|market_code| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |UNH|UNH.N|UnitedHealth Group|2024 Q1|-121.14651887772774|8.555329540633737|169| |UNH|UNH.N|UnitedHealth Group|2024 Q2|-21.849036591833126|6.406682238463773|169| |UNH|UNH.N|UnitedHealth Group|2024 Q3|3.64359059291156|9.1586275592512|169| |UNH|UNH.N|UnitedHealth Group|2024 Q4|1.920704845814978|6.7565420907155795|169| 2. **Historical Accuracy**: The company's earnings have exceeded market expectations in the past. For instance, in the latest report period, the EPS surprise was $0.07, and the revenue surprise was -$810 million. While the revenue surprise was negative, the positive EPS surprise suggests that the company's earnings forecasts are generally reliable. |code|Ticker|Name|Date|Revenue Surprise|Net Income|market_code| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |UNH|UNH.N|UnitedHealth Group|2024 Q1|3.26E8|-1.221E9|169| |UNH|UNH.N|UnitedHealth Group|2024 Q2|1.8E8|4.421E9|169| |UNH|UNH.N|UnitedHealth Group|2024 Q3|1.68E9|6.258E9|169| |UNH|UNH.N|UnitedHealth Group|2024 Q4|-8.1E8|5.784E9|169| 3. **Analyst Confidence**: Analysts have shown confidence in UNH's earnings prospects, with a projected EPS of $27.52 for the first fiscal year and $29.80 for the second fiscal year. This indicates that analysts believe the company's earnings will continue to grow in the future. 4. **Market Performance**: The stock's performance has been closely tied to earnings reports. For example, following the announcement of Q2 2023 earnings, the stock showed confidence with a 1.77% increase over the Medical sector. This suggests that the market reacts positively to earnings beats, which could indicate that the company's earnings forecasts are reliable. 5. **Recent Performance**: The stock experienced a dip, but this was more pronounced than the broader market's losses. This could be seen as a positive sign, indicating that the company's fundamentals remain strong despite short-term market fluctuations. In conclusion, while there are some nuances to consider, such as the negative revenue surprise, the overall historical performance and analyst confidence suggest that UNH's earnings forecasts are reliable. Investors should continue to monitor the company's performance and any changes in analyst estimates, which can provide insights into the company's business trends and profitability.