How reliable are STX's EPS forecasts based on past performance?

**Seagate Technology's (STX) EPS forecasts appear to be generally reliable based on past performance**, as indicated by the following points: 1. **Consistency in Forecast Accuracy**: Seagate Technology has a history of accurate earnings per share (EPS) forecasts, with the latest EPS surprise being $0.15, which is significant compared to the diluted EPS of $1.55. This suggests that analysts' forecasts are closely aligned with the company's actual performance. |code|Ticker|Name|Date|Estimate EPS|EPS Surprise|market_code| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |STX|STX.O|Seagate Technology|2024 Q3|0.29|0.04|185| |STX|STX.O|Seagate Technology|2024 Q4|0.73|0.32|185| |STX|STX.O|Seagate Technology|2025 Q1|1.45|0.13|185| |STX|STX.O|Seagate Technology|2025 Q2|1.88|0.15|185| 2. **Analyst Factors Influencing Accuracy**: The accuracy of EPS forecasts is influenced by several factors, including the analysts' personal ability, the difficulty of the task, and the broker size. Historically, analysts employed by large brokers tend to produce more accurate earnings forecasts. Since Seagate Technology is covered by multiple analysts, the likelihood of accurate forecasting is higher due to the diversity of perspectives and resources. 3. **Information Advantage**: The relative accuracy of analysts and managers early in the year is more likely driven by their comparative information advantages. Seagate Technology's analysts likely have access to a wealth of information, including financial statements, industry trends, and market conditions, which enhances the accuracy of their forecasts. 4. **Firm Characteristics**: Firm characteristics, such as industry, earnings quality, and audit quality, can affect forecast accuracy. Seagate Technology operates in the technology sector, which is known for its stable and predictable earnings. This stability contributes to more accurate forecasts as analysts can rely on consistent historical performance to predict future results. 5. **Cognitive Biases and Financial Factors**: Among financial factors, volatility, indebtedness, and profitability are crucial in determining the accuracy of analysts' forecasts. Seagate Technology's relatively low volatility and stable financial position may indicate a lower risk of unexpected earnings surprises, thus supporting the reliability of its EPS forecasts. In conclusion, Seagate Technology's EPS forecasts are likely to be reliable based on the company's historical performance, the expertise of its analysts, and the availability of quality information. However, investors should also consider the broader economic and industry conditions that could affect the company's future earnings.